Afghanistan's future

While US President Barack Obama was calling the elections "an important step forward" and NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen was describing the process as a "testimony to the determination of the Afghan people to build democracy," the Afghan presidential candidates have started trading blows of alleged fraud and vote rigging which suggest quite the contrary.

Although the elections were less violent than had been widely anticipated, fear of violent reprisals and disenfranchisement with the political process kept people from the polls, especially in the Pashtun-dominated south and east of the country, where the Taliban insurgency has its heartland. As voting ended it became clear that many of the repercussions are still to come.

The question many onlookers ask now is whether the events of the last week will further destabilise the country with what could be devastating consequences, or whether, perhaps, there is still hope for a brighter future ahead.

Fighting for political survival

For incumbent President Hamid Karzai the period leading up to and since the election has been a fight for his political survival. The legitimacy and credibility of Karzai's government has been eroded by corruption, mismanagement of resources and alliances struck with tribal strongmen and notorious warlords. A flourishing narcotics industry and horrific poverty have further tainted his presidency.

Just two days after the election, Karzai was seen at a dinner hosted by the famous singer Farhad Daria at the luxurious five-star Serena hotel, best known for a deadly multi-pronged attack in January 2008 for which the Taliban took responsibility. Karzai was in good spirits as he smiled and shook hands with other presidential candidates at the non-political dinner, organised to promote unity and solidarity among the candidates

The meeting was presided over by Azizullah Ludin, the chief of the Independent Election Commission. During the dinner he addressed the candidates urging them to accept the outcome, whatever it may be. Whilst Karzai's opponents believe that the IEC is secretly backing President Karzai (not an inconceivable situation, observers say, given that the IEC members were elected by him), the IEC rejects these claims.

Afghanistan's problems

Karzai has had a very difficult task over the past five years, and his term in office has been marred by controversy. The Taliban insurgency has reached the highest levels since they were ousted from power in the US-led invasion in 2001 and corruption is endemic. Although he enjoyed a close relationship with former US President George Bush, Karzai appears to have fallen out of favor with the current US administration for these reasons. In Karzai's defense he has managed to keep a semblance of order in the face of all these problems and ethnic fault lines that have threatened to tear the country apart.

President Karzai's main rival, Dr Abdullah Abdullah, has a very different reputation.Whilst he has distanced himself from any of the dubious allegations that Karzai has had to contend with, Abdullah, who is said to lack Karzai's charisma, has not presented any detailed policies on which direction he proposes to take on many important issues, how he would intend to fight corruption and how he would resolve the problem with the Taliban. This lack of clarity has called into doubt his ability to lead the country forward.

Furthermore, Abdullah's campaign was allegedly heavily financed by the Iranians, raising further questions about whose interests he represents. Born half Pashtun and half Tajik, he is considered a Tajik and therefore it is the vote of the Tajik-dominated north that he has been counting on. Abdullah's campaign posters showed him smiling next to the deceased mujahedeen commander and national hero Ahmad Shah Massoud, who was killed by two Al-Qaeda suicide bombers just days before the Sept. 11 attacks. A former ally of the Lion of Panshjir, as Massoud was known, Abdullah is using his larger than life persona to boost his own lack of personality.

US urges restraint

Following the elections, Richard Holbrooke, the US envoy to Afghanistan and Pakistan, commuted between both camps to persuade both President Karzai and Abdullah to display patience, not to declare victory before results are in, as both candidates did, and most importantly not to play the ethnic card.

Holbrook's mission had mixed results. So far none of the candidates have threatened violent protest. On the contrary, officially Abdullah has shown restraint, and has asked his supporters to refrain from taking to the streets, though nobody knows what is being said behind closed doors.

The special envoy's visit included a stop over in Mazaar-i-Sharif, the main city in northern Afghanistan, where the German Bundeswehr is based. There he met with Mohammad Atta Noor, governor of Balkh province, and one of Abdullah's closest allies. Following this meeting, Noor was quoted in the British Telegraph newspaper as saying that he was under pressure from the international community to accept a Karzai victory because of the destabilising effect it would have on the southern provinces should a Tajik come to power.

"They have come to the conclusion that if Mr Karzai doesn't win, insecurity will increase in the south. Because of the insecurity situation, they are insisting we should go and work with the government. It's very difficult for us. They are saying we should not accept the will of the people. This situation would never be accepted by the majority Pashtun south," he reportedly said.

Asked whether the international community was putting pressure on his camp to accept a result without a run-off, Abdullah denied the rumours. "No, I am not being pressured. The only pressure which I will be ready to take will be from the people, not from the international community," he said.

At a recent press conference held in the garden of his Kabul home, Abdullah presented material and video evidence he claimed showed Karzai tried to steal the vote.

Which way forward for Afghanistan?

In a move that is frustrating international observers and the Afghan people alike, the Independent Election Commission is drip-releasing the figures, making it impossible to come to any conclusions as far the outcome of the elections are concerned and thus keeping a lid on any potential unrest.

In view of increasing violence, security is the key word making the rounds in the international community. But what about democracy? If, as is widely believed massive vote rigging took place and Karzai wins nonetheless, many Afghans might ask whether that is the kind of democracy the West wants to have in Afghanistan.

Not only would six months of preparations, millions of euros and dozens of lives be wasted, but the confidence of the Afghan people in the democratic process could be damaged for a long time to come. Many feel that the international community cannot resign itself to the fact that this election may be decided by widespread stealing of the vote.

Should the Afghan people reject the outcome of the elections, and should this lead to unrest, then onlookers would rightly be worried that Iran-style protests and more could follow.

Amongst many Afghans, President Karzai is known as the "Wizard" and he is pulling every trick out of his hat to win this election. Will Karzai be able to pull of this final act of magic and create the illusion of a democratic process? Observers say he may well succeed, however they also say it may beyond his power to make Abdullah's anger disappear or to turn the fate of a country that has been plagued by a quagmire of insecurity, corruption and poverty under his rule.

Dan Morgan is reporting for DW from Afghanistan
Editor: Rob Mudge