Concrete Steps

Christoph Bals is the executive policy director of Germanwatch, a non-profit, non-governmental initiative that addresses international issues including trade and the environment.

DW-WORLD.DE: International work groups met in Bali for the first week of the climate change conference and each country is here with its own agenda. What was your impression of the first week?

Christoph Bals: There was one really big shift in the position of the rapidly developing countries, mainly in China. This was very constructive. It was just two years ago that China said that only in the second half of the century would they be ready to negotiate seriously about commitments, and now they seem to be ready to start with these negotiations. This was a very constructive spirit from China and also from other rapidly developing countries, like Mexico, like South Africa and like Brazil.

The United States produces the most greenhouse gas emissions, and is one of the only industrial countries that has not ratified the Kyoto Protocol. In the past the US has tried to block negotiations. Is that true this year as well?

They are not really blocking negotiations at the moment, but they are still trying to start a parallel process for voluntary action. This would undermine the entire process. They want to have major conferences next year just to discuss this issue of voluntary activities. This is one way of blocking without really blocking the negotiations.

The United States says it wants to meet with the top industrial nations to discuss technology transfer to developing countries. Isn't this an important issue?

It is an extremely important issue. That is why it should be a strong part of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change agenda. We need a legally binding framework and we need a strong incentive structure for this technology transfer. There is no reason why this couldn't happen. But I don't think we need an additional process for technology transfer.

People have different expectations for Bali. Some are saying the least common denominator would be agreement on a timeline for a roadmap for setting up a new climate change protocol by 2009. What do you think the next week will bring?

We definitely need a roadmap, and we need a strong mandate for the roadmap, so we know what direction it is going in. But this must be ambitious, which means that we need some targets for 2020. We need an agreement that the peak of climate emissions should be between 2015 and 2020 to prevent global climate change. Parts of this ambitious roadmap are also technology transfer, a clear concept for avoided deforestation, and the future of the emissions trading system.

But what we need now are first steps showing that we want to start with concrete steps. I think we will have pilot projects in the forestry field of how we want to prevent deforestation.

You are saying that topics like avoided deforestation, or including airline emissions and transportation in general into a post-Kyoto protocol, will be touched on here, but will not go into a Bali agreement?

We will not get a Bali agreement, we will get a Bali mandate -- that is what we are hoping for. Anybody who wants a Bali agreement doesn't take seriously the fact that we want a great transformation of society, and this can't be organized in a 14-day conference. We need 10 conferences in the next two years to organize this. What we need now is a strong mandate, so that we can begin to negotiate with all relevant actors. That is my hope for the end of this week.