Everything will change in 2017

Germany's political climate is as hot as ever, since the influx of refugees in summer 2015. Chancellor Angela Merkel's migration and domestic security policies are emotional issues that the various parties are jumping on. For all the uncertainty, it's clear that the Bundestag will be home to six parties – more than ever before. A black-green coalition (CDU/Greens) is likely, with the conservative populist party, Alternative for Germany (AfD), playing a prominent role. In terms of refugee policy, the Greens are a natural fit for Merkel.

CDU/CSU: Divided like never before

The CSU, the Bavarian sister party of Angela Merkel's CDU, has revolted against Merkel's refugee policy – her "we can do this" mantra from last year met with "we will change this." It's a fundamental difference between the parties' ideologies. It remains to be seen if Angela Merkel will run for a fourth term as chancellor. She needs the support of her smaller CSU partner, and they are pushing for a refugee cap of 200,000. Merkel rejects that demand, yet half of Germans reject Merkel as chancellor. Opinion polls put the CDU at 32-35 percent, an historic low for the Christian Democrats, but enough to govern with a coalition partner. A decisive question is who comes forward, if Merkel steps back.

SPD: A shrinking 'people's' party

The Social Democrats have long claimed to be a big tent, but that tent has been getting noticeably smaller in recent years. The party is polling at barely 20-23 percent, hardly big enough for its platform to garner much attention (minimum wage, holding retirement age to 63, pushing for a quota for women in the workforce). The party suffers from a leadership gap: Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier is by far the SPD's most popular member (44 percent), but he won't be a lead candidate and already lost once to Merkel in 2009. The current chair of the SPD and Vice Chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, is polling at only 17 percent, but remains the party's likely chancellor candidate. "No one believed in 2004 that Angela Merkel would be chancellor," he said a few weeks ago. A grand coalition with the CDU would put the SPD in a junior role, and an SPD-Left-Greens coalition is highly controversial, though perhaps better than being in the opposition.

AfD: Leadership mudslinging, victories at the ballot box

The new conservative populist party, Alternative for Germany, has surged onto the scene in the last year, thanks to anti-refugee backlash. Two-thirds of its voters in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania state elections earlier this month didn't vote in the last election in 2011. Its popularity is rising on the national level, too, despite suggestions by party chair, Frauke Petry, such as sending refugees to a non-European island under UN control – a Napoleonic St. Helena for refugees. The AfD is on its way to becoming the third strongest party for 2017, polling at 15 percent. The party is garnering support from independent voters in former East Germany. "A radicalized middle class," says Forsa Institute's Manfred Güllner. Dismantling current government policy is of greater interest to AfD members than the party's constant internal leadership struggles.

The SPD's left wing favors an SPD-Left-Green coalition. Other elements of the party support, if only quietly, a political first: CDU-Greens. This comes after the Greens took power from the CDU in the conservative southern German state of Baden-Württemberg in 2015, a long-standing CDU bastion. The obstacle to a CDU-Green coalition is the CDU's Bavarian CSU partner, whose political base is at odds with the Greens on nearly every issue. Pollsters puts the Greens at around 12 percent.

The Left: Eroding potential in the east

After 26 years of German reunification, the Left remains a party of former East Germany. And the AfD is giving them a run for their money in the eastern states, attracting many would-be Left supporters. The Left lost 10,000 voters to the AfD in the most recent state elections there. Both parties see themselves as supporters of lower-income voters, which is why the Left would look to tax the wealthy in any coalition involving them. The Left is polling at around nine percent.

FDP: Nearly nonexistent

The liberal Free Democrats all but disappeared from the political landscape in 2013, though they may be recovering. The party is in need of new members following old-guard retirements and the deaths of well-known party chairs Hans-Dietrich Genscher and Guido Westerwelle, both of whom served as foreign minister, and Walter Scheel, who served as foreign minister and Federal President.

All bets are on 36-year-old Christian Lindner, who has been leading the party since 2013. The party of tax cuts has been making that theme less central to its platform, which looks to distance itself from old party ways. The FDP currently stands to make it over the 5-percent hurdle required for holding seats in parliament.