Can dialogue resolve Nigeria's 'IPOB problem'?

A sit-at-home order called by a group known as the Biafra Republic Government in Exile (BRGIE) in the southeastern part of Nigeria has continued into a second week.

This, and previous sit-ins, have been designed in part to force Nigeria's government to release Nnamdi Kanu, the leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), an outlawed group that agitates for the secession of the Igbo ethnic group's homeland that covers part of southeast Nigeria. 

IPOB spokesman Emma Powerful distanced his organization from the sit-at-home call.

"The leadership of the IPOB, the directorate of state, and the supreme leader of IPOB, Mazi Nnamdi Kanu, wish to publicly disassociate IPOB from any call for a one-week sit-at-home for Biafrans," according to a July 3 press release.

Despite IPOB's protestations, the sit-at-home order was enforced with reports of gunmen attacking businesses and schools.

Video and audio footage purports to show gunmen assaulting teachers and students for failing to comply.

"Everybody lie down, lie down, Why do you people come out today that you know is sit-at-home?" a voice can be heard saying on the footage. 

Simon Ekpa — who describes himself as the prime minister of BRGIE — issued another notice for a two-week sit-at-home, which IPOB has again disassociated itself from.

"… [Biafra Republic in Exile] wishes to notify Biafrans that there will be a sit-at-home civil disobedience starting from July 31, 2023, to 14, 2023," the Finland-based Ekpa posted on Twitter. 

Soaring insecurity 

In a press release, Ekpa threatened that failure to comply with the sit-at-home order would attract "heavy consequences.”

However, Prince Emmanuel Kanu, the brother of IPOB leader Nnamdi Kanu, speaking on behalf of the organization, indicated that they will never allow anyone to be required to engage in a sit-at-home exercise.

"Voluntary sit-at-home is allowed. People can choose to sit at home in solidarity," Prince Kanu told DW. "But there won't be anything like enforcement of sit-at-home. We won't allow that to happen."

The mixed messages coming from BRGIE and IPOB have left people vulnerable to attacks, said lawyer and political analyst Barrister Eric Omari.

"What I would demand from them as a stakeholder in Nigeria is for those who speak for Kanu and the IPOB to be clearer as to what they want. They must send the right message that they don't encourage violence. They don't encourage killings," he told DW.

The expert welcomed the news that the IPOB had openly declared a non-violent stance.

"Those who are connected to the IPOB are saying they are embracing a non-violent approach to their struggle," Omari said. "I would encourage the Nigerian government to take advantage of it, especially because we have a new government headed by President Tinubu."

Considering the crippling consequences of the sit-at-home policy on businesses and the population, experts have questioned if this is a viable strategy to get Nigeria's federal government to act.

IPOB, however, has indicated that they are doing as best they can to ensure that the people and the world understand their position on enforced sit-at-home measures and violence.

Lack of political will

Nnamdi Kanu founded IPOB in 2013 while living in London to force Nigeria's government to allow a referendum on independence.

Nigerian authorities consider the IPOB a terrorist group and banned it in 2017. IPOB says it wants to achieve independence through non-violent means.

Kanu was arrested and detained in 2021 under the leadership of former Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari and has been incarcerated ever since. 

"They said they want to sit at home until Mazi Nnamdi Kanu gets released. That's the position. I'm not against anyone who chooses to sit at home voluntarily. But you don't force anyone to sit at home. You don't do it," reiterated Prince Kanu.

Some have blamed Nigeria's Buhari administration for its poor handling of the situation, which has led to an escalation.

"Part of the issue that aggravated the agitation was a disposition of the immediate past government led by President Buhari towards that region, where he regarded that region as 5% and those who voted for him as 95%. You don't do that as a leader, as a leader, you must regard the entire country as your constituency," Omari explained.

A similar view is held by the IPOB leader, who equally attributed responsibility for the violence to the Buhari administration.

"The immediate past administration took the agitation for Biafra too personally," Prince Kanu said.

Should Tinubu learn from the Niger Delta conflict?

The human, material, and economic costs of the insecurity in Nigeria's southeast have been confirmed by many reports. A recent study  revealed that between 2021 and 2022, non-state armed groups killed approximately 83 civilians and 36 security personnel, in addition to kidnapping 73 people in 28 incidents.

With the recent attacks on civilians, experts believe the death toll will rise.

Many have even made links to the situation in the Niger Delta, during which a conflict over oil revenue and environmental damage spurred ethnic conflict, militarizing practically the whole region and giving rise to ethnic militia groups, the Nigerian military and police units — most notably the Nigerian Mobile Police.

"This is not the first time there have been agitations in the Niger Delta, and the late President Umaru Musa Yar'Adua took drastic steps to address the challenges," said Omari.

But Prince Kanu said there is a difference between the demands and strategy of IPOB and the issues that plagued the Niger Delta.

"We don't believe in armed struggle as well. I don't believe that, as you know, guns and bullets won't solve any problem," he highlighted.

Onus on President Tinubu

While alluding to the approach that was used by the late president, Prince Kanu said the Tinubu administration has the power to stop the violence by doing "the right thing."

"What is right is to free Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. I think if he gets released. Other things will die off within minutes," he said.

Both experts also agreed that it is important for all stakeholders to engage in dialogue.

"I believe that if President Tinubu summons the appropriate political will, he can address the agitation in the southeast part of Nigeria," Omari said.

Prince Kanu agreed.

"Until we sit at a round table and have a meaningful and genuine discussion. I think we'll never make any progress," he said.

President Tinubu's administration is less than two months old — and many are expecting to see if he will handle the situation in southeastern Nigeria differently thanhis predecessor.

Mohammed Bello contributed to this article

Edited by: Keith Walker

While you're here: Every weekday, we host AfricaLink, a podcast packed with news, politics, culture and more. You can listen and follow AfricaLink wherever you get your podcasts.