Can Europe help contain spiraling violence in Lebanon?

The European Union's foreign affairs chief was visibly frustrated earlier this week when he called for de-escalation in Lebanon and respect for a longstanding UN resolution designed to end Israel-Hezbollah hostilities.

"[It] was adopted in 2006. My God, almost 20 years ago! Almost 20 years ago. I'm still asking for the implementation," Josep Borrell told journalists.

"We are almost in a full-fledged war. We are seeing more military strikes, more damage, more collateral damage, more victims," he said. "Civilians in Lebanon are paying an intolerable, unacceptable price."

Borrell was speaking on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly meeting in New York — and on the sidelines is precisely where the European Union seems to have remained throughout nearly a year of conflict in Gaza and along the Israel-Lebanon border: Trying and failing to shift the dial diplomatically.

Now, the bloc is making fresh efforts to cool tensions. On Thursday, it released a joint statement with Japan, the UAE, the US, Saudi Arabia and others calling for a 21-day cross-border ceasefire. 

But officials harbor few illusions about the impact Europe can have as Israel ramps up attacks against Hezbollah in large swathes of Lebanon, and the militant group continues to fire into Israel.

Can the EU influence Israel?

On paper, the EU could hold some sway with the Israeli government. While Israel is only 25th on the bloc's list of trading partners, the EU is number one for Israel. According to the European Commission, 31.9% of Israel's imports came from the 27-member union in 2022, and more than a quarter of the country's exports went to the bloc.

Critics of Israel's bombardment of Gaza following Hamas terror attacks last October have called on the EU to use this potential leverage by considering sanctions against Israel over alleged international law violations.

While anything other than limited restrictions on violent Israeli settlers seems off the table, the bloc did agree back in May to convene talks with Israel to demand answers on its compliance with human rights provisions in the deal governing trade with the EU.

But on the ground, nothing has come of this request. Now, as Israel and Hezbollah appear to ignore fresh calls from the EU and other nations to de-escalate in Lebanon, the debate on possible responses is resurfacing.

The key factor constraining the EU's ability to act further in any direction here is the EU itself. Foreign policy decisions require unanimous backing across the bloc's 27 nations, and, almost one year on, the member states remain too divided to take almost any decisions on the Middle East.

Diplomatic weight lies in Washington?

"Europe indeed has become merely an impotent bystander," Karim Bitar of the Institute for International and Strategic Affairs in Paris told DW.

"Even though many Middle Easterners would have wanted Europe to play an important role, they realize that ultimately, Europeans are divided and that most of them will follow the United States' lead," said Bitar, who is also a professor at the Saint Joseph University in Beirut.

In his address to the UN General Assembly on Tuesday, US President Joe Biden said a "diplomatic solution" was still within reach and that the United States was "working tirelessly" to ensure residents of Northern Israel and Southern Lebanon could return home.

His administration has also been involved in so-far fruitless attempts to broker a ceasefire deal in Gaza between Israel and Hamas.

"We can expect very little change until after the [US] presidential elections," Bitar said.

Hezbollah: Orders from Tehran only?

When it comes to convincing Hezbollah to change course, the EU seems to have even less hope of pulling any weight. The militant wing of the Iran-backed armed group is classed as a terrorist organization by the EU, and Kelly Petillo of the European Council on Foreign Relations said Tehran is the only actor that can exert influence on Hezbollah. Though, she said, "even Iran doesn't have full leverage on Hezbollah."

"Hezbollah has more capabilities than Hamas in Gaza. So in the case of the Israel-Hezbollah front, the potential for a terrible scenario is much higher," Petillo said.

EU foreign affairs chief Josep Borrell held talks with his Iranian counterpart in New York despite a historic low in relations, with Brussels sanctioning Iran over alleged military support for Russia's war in Ukraine, and accusing Tehran of human rights violations.

France: a possible broker?

One EU country is seen as more of a player in Lebanon — if a controversial one: Former colonial power France.

Thousands of Lebanese citizens are also French passport holders, hundreds of French troops are involved in a UN peacekeeping mission in Lebanon. Reuters news agency reported earlier this year that Paris had drawn up proposals for a cease-fire deal between Israel and Hezbollah. 

Though that attempt failed, Petillo said there has been a recent "ramping up of French efforts" as the country emerges from its own domestic political crisis.

During his speech at the UN General Assembly, French President Emmanuel Macron on Wednesday called for an end to Israeli and Hezbollah attacks, adding that the biggest risk to the region now was escalation in Lebanon. 

French diplomat Jean-Yves Le Drian has been in Beirut and Macron met with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian at the United Nations on Tuesday. According to a statementfrom his office, Macron "underlined Iran's responsibility to support a general de-escalation and to use its influence on destabilizing actors."

Unlike most Western powers, France has also maintained relations with Hezbollah. 

"The French still have a degree of influence in Lebanon because of their communication channels with Hezbollah, and because they are familiar with the Lebanese situation," researcher Karim Bitar explained.

Bitar said France could play a "modest but not insignificant role" moving forward — but not alone. Bitar believes any French proposal for de-escalation would "require US cover for it to be successful."

Edited by: Andreas Illmer