Asian diplomacy

Deutsche Welle spoke to Bernt Berger, an analyst for Chinese foreign and security policy issues at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). He explains why China is less than comfortable with its world leadership role.

Deutsche Welle: Obama is currently in Asia - and all eyes are on his stop in China. What are the expectations for the meeting, in terms of outcome?

Bernt Berger: Well, its too early to see what will come out of Obama's new Asia policy, or what he calls the "new era of engagement" in general. I think the visit that is starting now is more symbolic. Obama will go to China and set the tone for the relationship in the future.

The real negotiations, especially with China, take place in the China Strategic and Economic Dialog, where real issues are being talked about, like protectionism, human rights, or exchange-rate issues.

Does Europe, or the EU, have any particular expectations for Obama's visit to China?

The EU doesn't have the same role that the US does in the Asian region - we're not engaged in security issues in East Asia, we're not a regional power. But the US has this role - of ordering power in the region, and as a balance of China in the region.

So far, China is a very weak military power, but they are a very strong economic power, and they are in dialog with most of the states on a multilateral and bilateral basis. The US will now engage more in this kind of forum. For instance there will be the US-ASEAN summit where the US will try to engage with Southeast Asian nations on a different basis than they have so far.

Do you think the EU is content with its role when it comes to US-Asian relations? Or were they hoping that with this new US administration they could be more central to policy discussions?

I think you have to separate the issues. The EU has its own relationship with ASEAN … and I think the US has a completely different role in Asia. There is no direct competition, and no direct benefit for Europeans from these meetings.

The problem for the US at the moment is that none of the main foreign policy objectives in the world right now can be solved without China. That concerns the international financial crisis, North Korea, Iran, and economic problems in general. So the US and China have to get to the table and sort these problems out together.

So does this support what a lot of commentators are saying: that in terms of world influence, China is more or less on par with the US? The catchphrase is that there is a 'G2' emerging at the heart of the G20.

As far as the idea of a G2 is concerned, the Chinese haven't been very happy about this term so far. They don't want to be seen as one of the two great powers - it would damage their image in the developing world.

The problem is that smaller states in the developing world are trying to diversify their relations, and in order to gain political weight, both the US and China have to be on board.

But isn't it China's goal to be a world power? Or is the issue simply that Beijing would rather not be portrayed that way?

Actually, it's not really their goal. I think sometimes the Chinese themselves are surprised by the dynamic that happened with their rise. It wasn't their goal to become a great power, its just a side effect of their economic development so far.

What kind of issues will Europe keep an eye on in these meetings?

Security issues, for one. There are several trends taking place. In the run-up to these meetings between Obama and China, there were initiatives on the side of Japan and Australia, who had a kind of alliance with India since (former US President George W.) Bush was in office, to be a balance against China. Now this has changed, since the Obama administration came in, and also because the Taiwan issue is less problematic since relations between Taiwan and the mainland have improved over the last year.

But there were initiatives from Australia, first of all to give more weight to APEC, where China is not a member, and secondly to bring the US into the East Asian forums, especially to the East Asian summit, which includes the ASEAN countries, China, Japan, Australia, India…. We don't know what will come out of this yet.

But these are some initiatives which try to prevent the US-China relationship from becoming too strong.

Europeans generally seem to be in love with Obama and are very positive on his leadership style and policies so far. Do the Chinese feel the same, or are they more sceptical?

Obama is very popular among the Chinese public. I think they are expecting him to bring another change into the diplomatic tone between China and the US, and increase the dialogical character of the relationships. I have to say that relations weren't bad between the Bush administration and China - they were very uncontroversial.

But the Chinese of course expect that dialog will be improved and that critical issues will be talked about in a constructive manner with Obama. This includes things like human rights and Tibet.

Speaking of which, human rights issues seem to be pretty far from the center of the discussion of this trip. Why is that?

I think Obama has kept a low profile on this issue. It doesn't mean he doesn't talk about it. He will have a very specific style when visiting China this time. But I don't think he will meet with dissidents, because that would have a negative impact.

Jennifer Abramsohn interviewed Bernt Berger
Editor: Rob Mudge