Could Israel-Hamas war spread across the Middle East?

The threat of an escalation in the war between Israel and Hamas has been the dominant topic in the international media for days, and the devastating rocket strike on a hospital in Gaza City last week has only increased that risk.

"Based on my meetings and the dynamics I observe on the ground, I would say the following: the risk of an expansion of this conflict is real, very, very real and extremely dangerous," United Nations Mideast envoy Tor Wennesland told the UN Security Council in New York last week.

The danger of a two-front war

One country is at the top of the list in most of the feared escalation scenarios: Israel's northern neighbor Lebanon, home to the radical Shiite Hezbollah political party and military group, which is supported by Hamas and even more so by Iran.

Hezbollah aims for the destruction of Israel and is classified as a terrorist organization in many Western countries, including the US and Germany. Militarily, it is also much more powerful than Hamas, with experts estimating that it has a current weapons stockpile of at least 100,000 rockets. In recent weeks, Israeli soldiers are said to have already killed armed fighters who advanced as far as Israel in repeated skirmishes along the border.

Hezbollah, a central political force in Lebanon's complex power structure, declared a "day of rage" in the wake of the hospital tragedy but has so far avoided a military escalation. Many observers say that Hezbollah fighters could quickly find themselves challenged if the Israeli offensive in Gaza expands and parts of the territory are even occupied by Israel.

The result would be a possible two-front war. Almost all military experts agree that this would be an enormous military show of force by Israel that would further destabilize the entire region.

Iran: From terror supporter to direct participant?

So far, no clear evidence exists that Iran was actively involved in preparations for the Hamas terror attacks. While Hamas is known to be supported by Iran, it has also repeatedly made decisions on its own in the past.

Iran's Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian has already referred to the possibility of "preemptive action" against Israel. Many observers, however, see Iran's primary goal more as waging a proxy war from afar by supporting Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Palestinian terrorist group Islamic Jihad, thereby forcing Israel into a de facto two-front war.

"We can't rule out that Iran would choose to get directly engaged some way," White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told US broadcaster CBS recently. "We have to prepare for every possible contingency."

This scenario worries many regional experts the most because direct intervention by Iran could drag numerous other states, such as Syria, Iraq and Israel's main ally, the US, directly into the conflict.

Egypt: Concern about a chain reaction

Due to its direct border with both Israel and Gaza, Egypt is directly affected by the war. Having maintained diplomatic relations with both Israel and the Palestinians for many years, the country has become a hub for international politics in recent weeks.

While Egypt may be seen as a potential mediator, Cairo is still worried about being drawn into the war itself. So far, President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi has refused to take in larger groups of Palestinian refugees due to strong resistance in the already economically beleaguered country. There are also fears that Hamas fighters may enter and establish contacts with the Muslim Brotherhood, a group with close ties to Hamas and considered an enemy of the state in Egypt.

"Sinai would become the base for further attacks against Israel," el-Sissi said last week. That, in turn, could result in Israeli attacks on Egyptian territory and unforeseeable chain reactions.

Fears extend beyond the Middle East

Europe, too, is increasingly worried about being drawn into the conflict. While the United Kingdom and the US have already sent warships to the region, European Union states are holding back on any military deterrence measures.

At the same time, the threat of violence and terrorist attacks by Hamas sympathizers on European soil is increasing. As recently as last Wednesday, unidentified individuals attempted to carry out an arson attack on a synagogue in Berlin. Dozens of police officers have also been injured in violent demonstrations in the German capital this week.

"There are now so many forces at play that a proxy war may emerge that will be devastating," Middle East expert Hasnain Kazim said in an interview with German broadcaster ARD.

And as many observers point out, it is not just the geopolitical strategies of the regional powers that play a role in the various scenarios. Decades of resentment, targeted propaganda, and increasing disinformation have all created a dangerous mixture that is becoming more difficult to control.

This article was originally written in German.