Beijing's promise

The offer on the table is a domestically binding policy goal to reduce carbon intensity by between 40 percent and 45 percent over the next decade. It's a plan which Vice Foreign Minister He Yafei described as proof of "China's highly responsible attitude towards the future of mankind."

It is not, however, a pledge to cut overall emissions.

A reduction in carbon intensity - the amount of carbon dioxide emitted per unit of GDP - equates to greater efficiency in energy production. It means it takes less carbon to create economic growth. As good as that might initially sound, reduced carbon intensity and increased CO2 emissions are far from mutually exclusive.

Beijing's plans are a smoke-screen for continued mass-scale pollution, according to Lutz Mez, executive director of the Environmental Policy Research Center in Berlin.

"China has been witnessing 10 percent economic growth for the past 30 years, and the increase in energy consumption has been growing at the same rate," Mez told Deutsche Welle. "That is a catastrophe not only for the country, but for the world."

Bleak predictions

If China's economic growth continues at its current rate - now down to 8 percent - that would mean an 80 percent increase in overall emissions over the next 10 years. "By 2020 China, with its population of 1.3 billion, would be pumping out 7 tons of CO2 per person," Mez said.

But Juergen Scheffran, a professor in Climate Change and Security at the University of Hamburg believes industrialized countries should be happy with China's announcement, which he described as "a positive sign" and an indication that Beijing is considering its role in global warming.

Scheffran told Deutsche Welle it was worth remembering that China is not bound to take action on climate.

"Any pledge China makes now is voluntary," he said. "It has no immediate legal obligation to reduce carbon emissions or to limit them but has an interest in preventing dangerous climate change."

Environmentalists, however, have argued that every country, not least China as the world's greatest emitter of greenhouse gases, has a moral commitment to curb carbon output. And the real way to live up to that obligation would be to enter into a legally binding agreement to put a lid on emissions.

But Beijing is not yet willing to go that extra mile. It has repeatedly insisted that developing nations - principally China and India - ought to be treated as such and not expected to fall in line with rich and industrialized countries which can afford to shoulder the weight of cutting emissions.

A bargaining chip

By the same token, Scheffran said, in making its statement just days before the United Nations climate conference gets underway in Copenhagen, Beijing has won itself some leverage. "It is not a revolutionary step," he said, but added that China could at least now say it is "doing something."

But that something is not enough, according to Mez. He said he believes the kind of "soft talk" which came from the Chinese government last Thursday is a cop-out because everyone, not only China, should be looking to reduce energy intensity already.

"In Germany, the first agreement between industry and the government talked in terms of energy intensity," Mez said. But he said it quickly became apparent that the only way forward was an absolute reduction in emissions. "So Germany improved its policy."

Mez said one could be optimistic and trust Beijing to follow the same path, but he is not convinced that such a progression will be forthcoming in the immediate future. Given that China has far from reached the tip of its economic potential, a reluctance to embrace a reduction in carbon emissions could have far-reaching consequences.

"The time frame for a successful climate policy is very small," Mez warned. "Greenhouse gas emissions have to have peaked within the next 15 years."

Investing in the future

For China to contribute to turning that goal into reality, it means dealing with pollution from heavy road traffic, becoming less dependent on coal and oil, improving public transport and building energy-efficient housing.

Although there is a long way to go, Scheffran said China is taking some positive action to clean up its act.

"They are increasingly investing in technologies such as wind and solar power and hydro energy," he said, adding that such projects offer significant scope for international collaboration between developing and industrial countries.

All parties willing, the shape of any such future partnerships could become a little clearer next week when world leaders, including China's Premier Wen Jiabao, put their cards on the table in Copenhagen.

Tamsin Walker

Editor: Sean Sinico