Does Syria's power shift raise hopes for stability?

The rapid fall of Bashar Assad's regime in Syria after the successful advance of the Islamist militia Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which translates to "Organization for the Liberation of the Levant," will reshuffle Syria's relations with its neighbors.

HTS governed Syria's last major oppositional stronghold in the country's northwestern region of Idlib for five years, but as it focuses on consolidating its powers in the Syrian capital Damascus, there is much debate as to whether it will be able to govern the whole country, particularly as there are a multitude of other rebel groups who will want to share power. 

"Arab leaders won't like the shattering of Syrian stability," Richard LeBaron, a non-resident senior fellow with the Middle East Programs at Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council, wrote  on Monday. 

For years, Assad's key allies were Russia, Iran and the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia. The Arab League — a group of 22 countries — had reestablished ties with his regime in May 2023 after 12 years of isolating him as a consequence of his brutal suppression of the local population during Syria's civil war. 

But in the view of LeBaron, among Syria's Arab neighbors, only Qatar — which firmly opposed the Assad regime — might step forward to help with the reconstruction of the shattered, fragmented and economically weakened country.

Its new leaders will hope to see the lifting of international sanctions, but it remains to be seen which actors, apart from Qatar, might be willing to support them.

The HTS group, which was previously affiliated with US-designated terror outfit al-Qaida, was labeled a foreign terrorist organization by the US in 2018. 

But its leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani recently told US broadcaster CNN that he and other leaders in the group had evolved in their outlook and Islamic understanding with age, claiming that the extreme views from their youth had become more moderate over time.

On Monday, the AP news agency reported that he had said HTS would not impose dress codes on women or interfere with other personal freedoms. In recent years, the militia has shown tolerance towards religious minorities, such as Christians or the Druze community in areas under its control. 

Tense relations with neighbors

Syria's neighbors, including Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq and Israel, have all fortified their border defenses.

"It is still too early to fully gauge the regional implications, but security concerns dominate the responses of neighboring states," Nanar Hawach, senior analyst for Syria at the International Crisis Group, an independent organization working to prevent wars, told DW.

Hawach said that Israel had welcomed the fall of Assad, who was a key ally of Iran and Lebanon's Hezbollah militia, "but it has still taken major steps in regards to security, including an incursion into Quneitra and Mount Hermon, where it established a buffer zone along the borders as part of security precautions." 

"Israel has also taken the opportunity to weaken the successor of the Assad regime militarily by bombing military targets, including air defenses and the al-Mazzeh Airport in Damascus," Hawach added.

The news and financial information provider Bloomberg also reported that US airstrikes had hit 75 targets of the so-called "Islamic State" (IS) extremist group in central Syria on Sunday, as US President Joe Biden cautioned that Assad's fall from power could open the door to a resurgence of Islamic extremism. 

Some 900 US troops are currently stationed in Syria to prevent IS from gaining strength again. They also support and train the the Kurdish Syrian People's Protection Unit (YPG) in the country's northeast. Analysts say that HTS and IS do not share common objectives, as the former only wants to control Syria and does not have the aim of buiding a global caliphate. 

Political stabilization and democracy in Syria?

Analysts say that regardless of the regional consequences, Syria's new rulers will have to focus on political stabilization if they want to be recognized by Turkey, the European Union and the United States.

"It is likely all of these entities will recognize the new [HTS] government on the condition it forms a moderate administration, refrains from fighting the Kurdish YPG, and does not support Hezbollah or Hamas," Mehmet Ozalp, Associate Professor in Islamic Studies at Australia's Charles Sturt University, told the online magazine The Conversation. 

"Given their unexpected success in toppling Assad so quickly, the opposition is likely to accept these conditions in exchange for aid and recognition," he added.

Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow for Middle East Security at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), also told DW that while "the country has little experience with democratic institutions, and faces a great risk of disarray and even territorial fragmentation," this could be the "very reason" that this moment could bring forth "the beginning of a political settlement." 

In Ozcelik's view, with time and with a viable timetable, it is even possible to envisage the implementation of UN Resolution 2254, which calls for free and democratic elections in Syria.

"It will be essential that the process is as inclusive as possible with minimal external interference to support an indigenous Syrian roadmap," she told DW.

Displaced people start going home

In the wake of Assad's toppling, the Syrian population is on the move, as it has become possible to enter parts of Syria that were hitherto impossible to access. 

This is also the case in the region of Idlib  with its around 4 million mostly displaced Syrians who have lived under HTS control for the past five years. 

"We've recorded over 370,000 people arriving to Idlib from other governorates," David Carden, UN Deputy Regional Humanitarian Coordinator for the Syria Crisis, told DW.
 
"The displacement situation continues to be fluid as people are also returning home," he said, adding that "we remain committed to stay and deliver, and help the most vulnerable people of Syria through all modalities."

Correction: A quote by Mehmet Ozalp was incorrectly attributed in an earlier version of this story and corrected on December 10.