Edging ahead
October 14, 2011Even though the shoo-in score which comes with predicting a Bayern victory didn't materialize last week, the DW pundits still managed to get enough points on the board to edge ahead of the guest guessers in the overall total. Well played Kit Holden (@KitHolden) of England but it was a case of "close but no cigar" as the home side recorded a 8-6 win before putting our feet up for the international break. Can we keep it up despite a week of rest? Let's see…
This week's challenger, Adrian (@AdrianSertl), is based in Toronto:
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Friday, October 14
Bremen - Dortmund
The Bundesliga restarts after the international break with a tasty clash between one of the league's most cavalier attacking sides and…Dortmund. Last season, when Werder were undergoing a personality crisis, BVB were the club that were tearing opponents apart at will with rapier offensive play. Jürgen Klopp's boys have lost a bit of their spark this season and while the 4-0 thrashing of Augsburg gave their strikers some shooting practice, Bremen are a totally different proposition. Werder still have the philosophy that scoring more than conceding is okay, which is fine when they're in their current mood. It'll be close but the champions could feel more pain here.
DW prediction: Bremen 3-2
Guest prediction: Dortmund 3-2
Saturday, October 15
Bayern - Hertha
Hertha will be hoping that a week off will have dulled Bayern's edge a bit and with Munich going into the international break on the back of a 0-0 draw, that hope may be greater than usual. But Bayern have still not conceded since the first day of the season and as a newly promoted side travelling to the AllianzArena, there will be more than a little trepidadtion as to what will happen in their own goal mouth too. Hertha are faring quite well in their first season back but this will be their biggest test to date. Bayern have no other major injuries except Arjen Robben and even if they had, they would still probably be too strong. Expect Bayern to get their mojo working again at Berlin's expense.
DW prediction: Bayern 3-0
Guest prediction: Bayern 3-0
Mainz - Augsburg
Augsburg got battered by Dortmund in their last game in a reminder of what kind of season they can expect in the big time. They still haven't won a game since promotion and have managed to accrue their points through four draws, which mirror their four defeats. It looked like it would be a steady start for the newcomers at first but they've been found out very quickly and have plummeted. Mainz are experiencing their own decline but should still have enough quality somewhere behind the perplexed faces and slight self-pity which has seen the shine come off a little in recent weeks. Augsburg will be hard to break down but at home, it should be Mainz.
DW prediction: Mainz 2-1
Guest prediction: Mainz 2-0
Stuttgart - Hoffenheim
And so it begins. Hoffenheim had us believing that they would mount a stealth attack on the European places this season, creeping up on the periphery to snatch a top five spot at the end of the season. But, true to recent form, their season seems to be petering out before the first snow. Shame. Stuttgart are taking every game as it comes, knowing all too well how fast things can change. They're picking up the points while still contending with the problems of personnel and backroom struggles which undermined their last campaign and games like this are where they can continue to notch vital victories. They'll need these types of points in the cold of winter - by which time Hoffenheim will be comfortably ensconced in mediocrity again.
DW prediction: Stuttgart 1-0
Guest prediction: Draw 1-1
Wolfsburg - Nuremberg
Wolfsburg used to be champions, you know? Not that long ago either. No, we haven't been drinking. But that was before their best players left and their coach abandoned them…although he did come back. It hasn't done them a lot of good though. Felix Magath still hasn't found the right blend of Wolves so far this season and can't seem to build on the good performances to totally eradicate the bad. Which way the pendulum swings this week will depend as much on which Nuremberg turns up as to what team Magath puts out. Nuremberg are still an enigma, but not one to get too excited about. This could be very dull.
DW prediction: Draw 1-1
Guest prediction: Nuremberg 2-0
Gladbach - Leverkusen
Gladbach are still living the dream and a well-deserved one. They're in third on merit and on the back of some quite entertaining performances – something this pundit never thought he'd write about this team, unless he was writing about Gladbach's involvement in an 8-0 defeat. They're coherent, confident and at times classy - although they lost last time out. They've shown they can do it against the big teams too so Leverkusen should be cautious. Robin Dutt's team were on the skids a little before beating Wolfsburg 3-1 before the break so should be up for this one in the knowledge that victory could take them back up the league. That might not be enough though.
DW prediction: Gladbach 2-1
Guest prediction: Draw 1-1
Schalke - Kaiserslautern
Schalke showed some of that Huub Stevens grit to grind out a 2-1 win over Hamburg in their last game but it wasn't as pretty a performance as the Schalke faithful have been used to of late. They're going to have accept that Stevens is a different, more defensive-minded man than his predecessor Ralf Rangnick and that the points are all that matter at this stage as he builds what he hopes will be a head of steam towards Champions League qualification. They're still keeping pace with the top three teams above them and to be there at Christmas will be a priority. The fancy stuff can wait. Saying that, Schalke may be allowed a little more freedom at home to Kaiserslautern who are suffering an early crisis and it's likely to be three more points for the Hubb Revolution come the final whistle.
DW prediction: Schalke 2-0
Guest prediction: Schalke 2-0
Sunday, October 16
Freiburg - Hamburg
Hamburg have a new coach but he won't be in charge for this game. Thorsten Fink will look on as Frank Arnesen tries to get a second win of the season under HSV's belt. Freiburg may provide a good as chance as any because despite their terrible form so far, this Hamburg team shouldn't be as bad as they are. But the thing is, they are. The players HSV have should quite easily roll Freiburg over - but there are mental and spiritual problems at the ImTech Arena right now. Confidence is below rock bottom. Freiburg beat Gladbach in their last game which suggests that a team in good form is nothing to fear for the southerners. A team like Hamburg who are currently rubbish, therefore, should be a cinch.
DW prediction: Freiburg 1-0
Guest prediction: Freiburg 2-1
Cologne - Hanover
Cologne's good run of form came to an abrupt end last time out in their 3-0 defeat to Hertha but until then, they were looking like a team with their tails up. Whether or not that defeat was a hammer blow or a blip remains to be seen. Hanover woke up and remembered that they are actually a good, attacking side against Werder in their last game, nicking the points in a 3-2 win. If Cologne haven't regrouped during the break and Hanover's confidence hasn't waned, it could quite easily be a heavy home defeat. But then Cologne are anything but predictable this season – despite that being part of our job.
DW prediction: Cologne 3-1
Guest prediction: Hanover 2-0
Last week's results:
DW: 8 points
Guest Kit Holden (@KitHolden) of England: 6 points
DW total for the season: 52 points
Guest total for the season: 50 points
Three points for a correct score prediction
Two points for a correct winning margin prediction
One point for a correct winner prediction
Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Mark Hallam