Egypt's Obama?

Such is the desire for change among liberal thinkers in Egypt that any sliver of hope of overturning almost three decades of rule by President Hosni Mubarak is enthusiastically championed. It doesn't seem to matter that the next presidential election is over a year away or that potential reformist leaders are wildly celebrated despite not being legally allowed to run for office. It appears that a slim chance is better than none at all.

The reception afforded Mohammed ElBaradei on his homecoming to Cairo last week seemed to sum up the mood of many who have grown up under Mubarak's increasingly oppressive and divisive leadership. Rapturous crowds of thousands welcomed ElBaradei, many inspired by the calls from Egypt's normally moribund opposition figures for him to run against Mubarak in 2011, if the 81-year-old incumbent decides to stand again.

The reaction to ElBaradei's return also smacked of desperation. The Nobel Peace Prize laureate is officially banned under Egypt's constitution from running for president. Amendments to the constitution passed in 2005 and 2007 prohibit him from doing so, a fact well-known among the celebrating masses. And yet, he was still welcomed as a national hero and saviour.

While neither counting himself in nor ruling himself out, ElBaradei has certainly stirred up debate over the future of Egypt, a country that has a history of strongly suppressing dissent and criticism of the president and his methods.

Support from cross-section of Egyptian society

Echoing another leader who was swept to power on a public longing for change, ElBaradei has already formed a 'Coalition for Change,' a group of like-minded opposition leaders aimed at reforming Egypt's constitution. Claiming that 99 percent of Egyptians want their country to head in a new direction, ElBaradei has also begun rallying "the poor and the rich, the young and the old…women wearing the niqab, the hijab, or not veiled at all; intellectuals; peasants; people of all ages and classes."

But much like US President Barack Obama, ElBaradei has made it clear that he does not want to be seen as a saviour. However, just as huge expectations pushed Obama to the White House, it may already be too late. "ElBaradei has become the symbol of the hope for change for millions of Egyptians," novelist Alaa al-Aswani told reporters on Tuesday.

Government restrictions make candidacy near impossible

Despite the growing movement behind ElBaradei, analysts say election rules make it almost impossible for any candidate to stage a realistic challenge against the one nominated by Mubarak's ruling National Democratic Party (NDP).

"The chances of ElBaradei running are very slim," Dr. Amr Hamzawy, research director at the Carnegie Middle East Centre in Beirut, told Deutsche Welle. "The constitutional restrictions introduced in the amendments of 2005 and 2007 say that independent candidates must have 250 signatures from parliamentary and local council members."

"The problem is that the ruling National Democratic Party holds 95 percent of the parliament and around 90 percent of council seats. This means no independent candidate will get enough signatures. The official, legal parties - even if they only have one seat - can field a candidate but ElBaradei has said that he will not be joining a party."

ElBaradei's refusal to join a party has been part of his stance to emphasize the restrictive nature of political process and to call for the reform of the Egyptian constitution to allow more competition and representation, something the ruling government has rejected.

"ElBaradei is understandably reluctant to run as the candidate of any of the existing opposition parties, which are all weak and many of them have been co-opted by the government and discredited with the public," Georgetown University Professor Michelle Dunne, an expert on Arab politics, told Deutsche Welle.

"He has formed a 'front' with other opposition figures to call for constitutional and legal changes to liberalize rules to run for the presidency. He would need to gather a lot of popular support in Egypt and international support in order to press Mubarak to allow such changes."

Read more about the chances for change in Egypt

ElBaradei's popularity born from frustration

"The opposition has been weak and stagnant for so long that it is no surprise that they are rallying behind ElBaradei," Hamzawy said. "They have very little representation in parliament, their work and ability to reach out effectively to constituencies has been heavily restricted since the state of emergency came into power in 1981 and they have failed to convince Egyptians that they have a solid platform and policies."

"The opposition is splintered along an ideological divide, between Islamists and secularists and its potential power has been stripped by constant in-fighting. Those who are in a position of relative power are there because they have struck a deal with the government; they agree to limit their reach in return for a guaranteed percentage of seats."

Mubarak remains cagey as mouthpieces take aim

President Mubarak has yet to publicly respond to ElBaradei's government-baiting and claims of a lack of democracy in Egypt. Earlier this month while in Germany for an operation to remove his gall bladder, Mubarak said that ElBaradei was welcome to run for president as long as he respected the constitution.

But the president bristled when asked in the same news conference whether ElBaradei was a national hero. "We do not need a national hero, here or there," the president said.

While Mubarak himself refuses to openly criticise the former diplomat and IAEA chief, his government and media mouthpieces have been taking aim. Osama Saraya, editor of the government's flagship daily newspaper al-Ahram, has accused ElBaradei of being "ill-informed" and "an American stooge" while Minister of State for Legal and Parliamentary Affairs Moufid Shehab said ElBaradei was out of touch and knew nothing about the challenges facing today's Egypt.

Not all opposition groups have joined behind ElBaradei either. The Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt's largest opposition group, has announced it would not support him. "Those who support ElBaradei are an elitist bloc with no roots in the Egyptian street," senior Brotherhood leader Mohammed Habib wrote in the independent newspaper al-Masry al-Youm.

Observers talk up potential dynastic succession

It is still not clear whether Mubarak will stand again in 2011 with some observers believing he will hand power to his son Gamal in the hope of creating a dynasty, a move which may add weight to ElBaradei's claims that Egypt has been following the pattern of Pharaoic regimes for the past 7,000 years.

"Of course the amendments made to the constitution and the limitations placed on independent candidates for the presidency have been put in place by Mubarak to protect his rule and keep the power within his regime," Hamzawy said.

"Now his son Gamal is being groomed, it looks as though this will continue. I personally believe that Hosni Mubarak, if his health holds, will run for a sixth term."

If Gamal, who heads the policy secretariat of the ruling National Democratic Party, is not named as Mubarak's successor, Egypt's intelligence chief Omar Suleiman, a close aide to the president, is the next most likely candidate.

"Mubarak knows that there is a certain amount of opposition to his plans for a dynastic solution to the succession question and knows that it would be difficult for him to anoint Gamal should he decide not to run himself," Almut Moeller, a Middle East expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations, told Deutsche Welle.

Egypt faces an uncertain future

Moeller believes that the political instruments Mubarak has installed during nearly 30 years of rule can almost guarantee that his party and regime will continue to run Egypt after 2011. What is less clear is the future the country will face after the next presidential election.

"If Egypt gets more of the same in terms of a ruling government, it's very hard to say how Egyptians will react," Moeller said. "There has been a growing opposition movement and unease within Egyptian society for some time now. If there is an eruption, a revolt, then it is very hard to say how the regime would respond to that."

Author: Nick Amies

Editor: Rob Mudge