Tricky Treaty

European leaders want to have a final treaty text ready for the bloc's summit to be held in Lisbon on Oct. 18-19. But the compromise reached under the leadership of German Chancellor Angela Merkel in June could be hijacked by the Polish election, which is likely to take place on Oct. 21.

Poland's ruling Kaczynski twins, who serve as president and prime minister, almost derailed the EU treaty in June during the German EU summit by demanding changes in the bloc's voting procedures.

Timetable to remain unchanged

EU Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said he remained confident Wednesday that the timetable would be met and said he sees no reason why Poland wouldn't "stick to its commitments."

"We hope it can be concluded during the October summit," he told reporters. "Even if there are elections in Poland there should be no reason to postpone it."

Britain's Andrew Duff, one of three European parliamentarians who will take part in the discussions with EU foreign ministers at Viana do Castelo in northern Portugal on Friday, said he was unsure of how Poland's political situation would play out.

While Poland could approve a deal in Lisbon "the concerns are there" regarding the country's political will to do so, he told the AFP news agency.

Poland a big unknown in treaty talks

Poland has not asked to postpone the talks or put off the conclusion of the treaty, and it's unclear how the collapse of their ruling coalition will affect treaty talks. EU diplomats are also worried that the nationalist rhetoric sure to come with a Polish political campaign could effect treaty negotiations.

Polish Foreign Minister Anna Fotyga said she would not rule out the possibility that elections in Poland could present a problem for the EU.

"In a normal situation, to adopt a coherent position on the treaty requires a strong government," she said Monday. "But we will see how things pan out."

Major parties have agreed to treaty

A recent opinion poll showed that the Law and Justice party had an early lead over the more pro-European center-right Civic Platform.

European Parliament President Hans-Gert Pöttering said since the two big Polish opposition parties supported the treaty, there was no reason not to reach a political agreement
in October.

"Everyone has to keep his word and the Polish elections don't change the need to stick to the commitment made in June," he said at a news conference.

But it's not only Poland that could prove a problem for the treaty, which would simplify the bloc's operation by creating a foreign policy chief and alter the system of a rotating presidency, which Portugal currently holds.

Britain could demand a treaty vote

If the EU manages to put together a treaty by the end of 2007, it will still need to be ratified by the EU's 27 member countries. There's some worry that the ratification process will run into similar problems as the constitutional ratification in 2005, when French and Dutch voters rejected the draft constitution.

In Great Britain, political leaders from all three main political parties launched a campaign Thursday to demand a referendum on the EU reform treaty. Current polls show a British referendum would likely produce a "no" vote, which could plunge the bloc into another political crisis.

Besides discussing treaty issues Friday, European foreign ministers will also meet Wolfgang Ischinger, the EU's representative along with the US and Russia to discuss the future status of the Serbian breakaway province of Kosovo.

On Saturday, the ministers will begin preparing for an EU-Russia summit in Portugal scheduled for Oct. 26.