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May 18, 2011

Now that Dominique Strauss-Kahn has bowed to pressure to step down as head of the IMF, speculation is mounting as to who might replace him, with Europe keen to push for the tradition of a European candidate.

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Heads on bank notes
Speculation is mounting about the next face of the IMFImage: picture-alliance/dpa

As Dominique Strauss-Kahn sits in Rikers Island prison, facing charges of sexually assaulting a maid in a New York hotel, the debate about who might replace him as head of the International Monetary Fund has intensified. The Frenchman resigned his post Thursday under mounting pressure.

Tradition has it that the IMF chief comes from Europe, while the head of the World Bank is an American. But emerging economies like China, India and Brazil, with their huge economic clout, are challenging that idea. China called for "fairness, transparency and merit" in the selection of the IMF boss.

Dominique Strauss-Kahn in court in New York
DSK resigned days after he was remanded in custodyImage: AP

The distribution of power at the IMF still mirrors the old economic order. Among the 24 directors, there are nine Europeans. Meanwhile, the Brazilian director has to represent nine countries and his vote has a weighting of just 2.4 percent.

Harald Eggerstedt, a German credit analyst at Ria Capital Markets, thinks the shift in economic growth dynamics towards emerging economies should be addressed within the framework of the IMF, to give them bigger voting shares.

"I don't think it can be done at the top of the institution right now, especially given the IMF's current focus on helping the eurozone countries in their stabilization efforts," Eggerstedt told Deutsche Welle.

French again?

Eggerstedt is among those tipping Christine Lagarde, the French finance minister, as the front-runner for the job.

"I think [Lagarde] is the top candidate given her experience and her outstanding role as a finance minister of France," Eggerstedt said. "So I think she'd be easily acceptable, both because of her competence as well as her political profile."

Christine Lagarde
Christine Lagarde is a front-runner, but her nationality could count against herImage: picture alliance/dpa

But her nationality may count against her because of the embarrassment over the Strauss-Kahn incident. Besides, a French national has run the organization for 26 out of the past 33 years. Some say it's time for a change.

Europe is keen to maintain the status quo. The IMF has played a major role in managing the European debt crisis and has contributed billions of euros to the bailouts of Greece, Ireland and Portugal.

"I hope we'll be able to reach a consensus in Europe," said Belgian Finance Minister Didier Reynders. "At the moment there's a balance between the world bank and the monetary fund. I'm not saying it shouldn't be changed over the coming years, but I think it's preferable that Europe continues to occupy this position."

In the running

Other names being put forward include the former Turkish Economics Minister Kemal Dervis, who is credited with brining Turkey bank from the brink of economic crisis in 2001. He is a former vice president of the World Bank and is seen as the most prominent candidate if the job does go to someone outside Europe.

Germany's Axel Weber
Long shot: Axel Weber former Bundesbank presidentImage: picture alliance/dpa

A couple of German names have also been mentioned by analysts, including Axel Weber, who stepped down early as head of the German central bank, and former finance minister Peer Steinbrück. But their chances are relatively slim, according to Eggerstedt.

"Axel Weber - I personally don't think so because he's just made a decision to go into academia. I don't think he's going to reverse that now," Eggerstedt said. "I don't think [Peer Steinbrück] will have a lot of support given that he has been out of a high profile position for a number of years now," he added.

Author: Joanna Impey (AFP, Reuters)
Editor: Nancy Isenson