Possible Solution for Iraq

Guido Steinberg, from the Berlin-based Institute for International and Security Affairs, talked to Deutsche Welle after some of the deadliest attacks in Iraq were believed to have killed over 220 people. Steinberg, the author of a recent study on violence in Iraq, said he believes a federal solution could help the country move forward peacefully.

DW-WORLD.DE: What are the conclusions of your study?

Guido Steinberg: Looking at the situation in Iraq today, I don't think that it is that important anymore whether the US security plan in Baghdad and central Iraq is successful or not. What I think is important is that the Iraqi actors don't come to terms with each other. Within the next couple of years, I think we will see an escalation of conflict not only in Baghdad, but rather in the north and the south of the country: in the north, over the incorporation of the Kirkuk into the Turkish autonomy zone; and in the south, over the control of the southern Shiite areas. This is why I think that only a federal solution can smooth this process of breaking off of Iraq.

Some commentators say that it is too late, that Iraqis themselves are set into partitioning the country into Shiite, Sunni and Kurdish areas. Are the political differences between these groups fundamentally irreconcilable?

I don't think that partition is a solution, because there will be no clear cut for the three parts. The country will totally disintegrate. I'd rather see four or five Iraq's emerging. This is why I think the only hope for us to come to any solution in Iraq, in the long term, is a federalization, which might be called soft partition.

A referendum is due to take place on the future status of the city of Kirkuk, which the Kurds regard as Kurdish and want to be included in their province, but there is fierce resistance by Turkmen and Sunnis living there. How significant is this issue?

It is extremely significant. I argue in my study that it might be the most significant topic in the coming months. What we are witnessing already is an escalation of violence. It is exactly the territories where Kurds, Turkmen and Arabs live together. I think this is a deliberant attempt on the part of al Qaeda in Iraq and other terrorist organizations to provoke a civil war in the north of the country. I think if the Kirkuk issue is not solved between the political parties in Baghdad, this second civil war, in the northern part of the country, might take place.

The real danger for the rest of the year 2007 and for the year 2008 is for an intervention by the neighbors, because if the conflict escalates in the north of Iraq, if the Turkmen, for example, are increasingly targeted by the terrorists, it is more likely that the neighbors will try to intervene -- if not directly, then indirectly-- as Iran already does in southern Iraq.