Syria deadlock

It's become somewhat of a ritual. If, once in a while, the Russian government does criticize Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, Western media and politicians immediately celebrate it as a change of course.

This, in turn, is always dismissed by Moscow, which claims that its position has not changed. It's a claim that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has had to make several times in recent months.

'It is about more than just Syria'

So far the Russian position on Syria can be summed up as "hands off Syria." Moscow doesn't want to see the fate of its partner in the Middle East decided from abroad, argues Ernst-Jörg von Studnitz, former German ambassador to Moscow and chairman of the German-Russian Forum. He told DW that the situation was similar to the differences between Moscow and the West over the NATO war in Yugoslavia in 1999. Russia now too wants to prevent "the West under the leadership of the US - but also Europe - from becoming the sole deciding factor over the future of Syria." Studnitz sees this as Moscow's main motive.

Margarete Klein of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs has a similar perspective on the conflict. "I don't think that this is so much about securing military or economic interests for the Russian side," she says. Instead she thinks that Russia cares more about the wider implications: "It is rather about principles of international order where Russia wants to uphold its stance that there should not be any military intervention from abroad.”

"It is not about Syria," agreed Fyodor Lukyanov, editor in chief of the Moscow-based magazine Russia in Global Politics. Kremlin policy was rather based on views about Russia's position in the world and its influence on world politics.

No new Cold War

Experts agree that the ongoing dispute over Syria has led to a worsening of relations between Russia and the West, which have become tenser, "but," said Klein, "I don't think that this will be the decisive issue in determining the future relation between Russia and the West."

And, argues Lukyanov, it "doesn't make any sense" to compare what's going on now with the conflicts of the Cold War. Studnitz agrees that a return to such a situation was impossible. He prefers to speak of "difficulties" in the relationship which have been triggered by the Syria conflict. Russia, China and the West all agree that the civil war has to stop. "But there are different opinions on how that can be achieved," Studnitz said.

A solution "is possible"

All three experts agree that the Russia is unlikely to change its position on Syria anytime in the foreseeable future - but that such a change is not impossible. Studnitz and Lukyanov think that the fate of Syrian President Assad is one of the crucial points. "If Assad is granted an exit that will secure his family a certain wealth, I do believe that there could be some progress over the issue," Studnitz said. Russia could in fact be important in helping to organize that.

"Assad will eventually go," Lukyanov believes. He even thinks it's possible that the Syrian president might end up receiving asylum, which "would be a good solution for everyone." Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov however dismissed this option as "a joke" in a recent meeting with his German counterpart Guido Westerwelle.

Author: Roman Goncharenko / ai
Editor: Michael Lawton