German job miracle?
March 22, 2012
The number of people out of work in Germany will decrease by another 130,000 in the course of this year, down from 3.11 million people at present, a think tank affiliated with the Nuremberg-based Federal Employment Agency (BA) said on Thursday.
In its study, the Institute for Employment Research (IAB) expressed confidence that the number of unemployed people will sustainably stay below the three-million-mark as the year goes on. The think tank revised its rather pessimistic labor market outlook from September of last year when it spoke of "harsh times ahead" for job seekers.
IAB researchers based their latest calculations on the assumption that Germany would post 1.1 percent growth in 2012. Other economic institutions in the country reckon with growth far lower than that.
"The labor market remains robust, although it may not be able to continue to grow so rapidly," the institute's expert Enzo Weber said in a statement on Wednesday. But he added that the economy was about to pick up speed again despite an ongoing eurozone debt crisis.
Reaching post-unification levels
The IAB expects 41.55 million people in the country to be in employment, which would mean the highest level since German reunification in 1990. It also says that the number of workers, who are subject to social insurance contributions, will increase by 510,000 to reach 28.94 million people on average in the current year.
This will be good news for the country's statutory pension and health funds which may be able to build up reserve assets for a rainy day.
The Nuremberg think tank arrived at its positive outlook for 2012, despite a larger number of people expected to be looking for jobs. It cites a bigger number of older workers and an influx of 200,000 migrant workers who will more than offset the purely demographic decrease in the overall workforce.
hg / gb (Reuters, dapd, epd)