No Nukes

The fact that this conference is even taking place is a success. For more than 10 years this meeting has been in the making, but has never gotten off the ground. That it is finally being convened in Vienna on November 21 and 22 under the auspices of the head of the International Atomic Energy Agency, Yukiya Amano, should therefore not be underestimated.

Take into account that Israel is attending a conference about a nuclear-weapon-free-zone (NWFZ) in the Middle East and there is even more reason to be optimistic. In the past Israel had often objected to proposals for similar meetings.

"It's a shift," says Barry Blechman, co-founder and distinguished fellow focused on nuclear disarmament at the Stimson Center in Washington about Israel's stance.

Beyond Israel

For many Arab states the motivation behind such a conference had for a long time been to highlight Israel's nuclear arsenal, however there's now been a discernible shift. Tehran's suspected nuclear arms program has now become a major concern not only for Israel, but also for many Arab countries.

"So Israel can go there knowing that they are not the only ones whose activities can be questioned at the meeting," Blechman told Deutsche Welle. "And other countries of course will question Iran as well."

Israel's attendance of course doesn't mean that it is prepared to give up its never officially confirmed nuclear weapons. "But it means that Israel is willing to talk and discuss confidence-building measures," Oliver Meier, the Berlin-based International Representative of the Arms Control Association, told Deutsche Welle. "And therefore this is significant."

Tehran, which has a history of hedging when it comes to international meetings, has not yet decided whether to participate in the conference. Regardless of its presence in Vienna, Iran's nuclear programs will be the focal point of the discussions.

While the conference is symbolically important and serves as a testing ground for new ideas concrete results are not expected.

First step

"Everybody in Vienna participating, but also everyone else is quite aware that the road to a nuclear weapons-free Middle East will be a very long and difficult one," says Meier.

"It's a first step, a way to get things started," adds Blechman.

The bigger and more important forum is next year's Nonproliferation Treaty review conference that is being organized by the Finnish government.

Both experts emphasize that in nuclear arms negotiations progress tends to be very slow and thus every baby step matters. Both point to Latin America as an example that perseverance can sometimes produce astonishing results.

Under the leadership of Mexico, all Latin American and Caribbean countries - even originally resistant Argentina and Brazil - eventually signed on to the Treaty of Tlatelolco in the 1960s that made the region a nuclear-weapon-free-zone.

While that doesn't serve as a one-to-one model, lessons learned from that region could be applied to the quest to one day establish a nuclear arms-free-zone in the Middle East. Next week's meeting in Vienna could be the kick-off toward that process.

Author: Michael Knigge
Editor: Rob Mudge