What next for Germany's far right following its state win?

For weeks, Björn Höcke was celebrated by his supporters as the future premier of the state of Thuringia. Then, on September 1, 2024, his party, the far-right extremist Alternative for Germany (AfD) was elected as the strongest political force in Thuringia, with Höcke as its driving force. It was a triumphant evening for him.

On election night on public television, Björn Höcke declared: "We are ready to take on government responsibility."

Höcke's supporters cheered him on at the AfD party in a Thuringian restaurant. And Höcke delivered a short victory speech. "We can't go on like this!" he said, referring to Germany's asylum and migration policy. The election party was streamed on X by the far-right publication Compact.

The fight against a diverse society is Höcke's top priority. He calls migration, "the mother of all crises." His supporters enthusiastically chant: "Deport! Deport! Deport!"

Björn Höcke is a controversial figure. His radicalism goes too far for many — even within his own party. In 2017, the party leadership failed in a bid to expel him for allegedly publishing in a neo-Nazi magazine under a pseudonym. Seven years later, on September 1, 2024, Höcke achieved a record election result for the AfD.

In his speeches, interviews, and debates, Höcke repeatedly emphasizes he is not interested in the details of lawmaking and government. He is concerned with the "big picture." Höcke wants a fundamental change in German society. For example, he not only wants to stop immigration: he wants millions of deportations of people whom he does not consider to be part of the "autochthonous" — in other words, "indigenous" — German population. Simply put: the deportation of refugees and immigrants. In AfD parlance, "autochthonous" generally refers to white people — not migrants.

Höcke and the AfD are so strong now — the party received 32.8% of Thuringian votes — that they argue that they should head the government. The next strongest party, the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), whose leader is currently holding talks to find potential coalition partners, is almost 10% behind the AfD.

But what does that mean in concrete terms? How and with whom does the AfD want to implement its policies in Thuringia?

 AfD: Election victory with a message

The AfD has had time to prepare for this current situation: opinion polls have shown it to be the strongest party in Thuringia for more than two years already. However, the figures also clearly show that the AfD cannot govern alone.  

But after their election victory, Höcke and the AfD began lashing out at all potential coalition partners: Höcke insulted the conservative CDU, calling it a "cartel party." And what is his reaction to the newly-founded, equally anti-immigration, 'Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance' party? Höcke called it a "sham opposition to the cartel," that is "no real alternative for a renewal of Germany and Thuringia."

Since the election, Höcke has been repeatedly asked how he intends to become the Premier of Thuringia. He has not yet provided an answer. He has pointed to the party committees which are discussing the matter. 

Does Höcke actually want to govern?

Political observers doubt that Björn Höcke wants to govern at all. At least not in Thuringia in a nerve-wracking coalition, which would have to be kept together with a great deal of skill, sensitivity and expertise. Such a coalition would require constant compromises. Höcke, on the other hand, is a person who makes maximum demands — and maximum promises.

Political scientist David Begrich believes that Höcke would rather tolerate a minority government, i.e. a coaltion of other parties that would then depend on the AfD supporting their bills one by one. Begrich works for the Miteinander Association, a network promoting democracy and open-mindedness. "That would give the AfD the advantage: it would not be responsible for government policy, but would still have direct influence on political decisions."

It is a plausible strategy, given that Höcke was vague about his concrete government plans following the election. He has been equally vague about further opposition plans. He euphemistically calls the blocking minority in the state parliament a "shaping minority." With its 32% voter share, the AfD will be able to block numerous important decisions in Thuringia, such as constitutional amendments or appointments to judgeships which require a two-thirds majority in parliament.

In an interview with the far-right online medium, Compact TV, Höcke was almost gleeful while predicting fresh elections: "I don't expect that a coalition formed with a narrow majority would survive the legislature. And then we'd have fresh elections, and then we'll see."

Some observers argue that Höcke has his sights on a much bigger prize than Thuringia. In fact, shortly before the state election, an elaborate propaganda film about Höcke was published by an extreme right-wing media project (for which Höcke provided extensive support). At the end of the film, Höcke smiles into the camera, sitting in front of an oversized oil portrait painting of himself — with Berlin's Reichstag building in the background.

This article was originally written in German.

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