Israelis show little enthusiasm for early elections

Rumors were making headlines in the Israeli media until the very last moment: The word was that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was busy behind closed doors trying to make a deal with the ultra-orthodox parties. Whether political spin or a serious attempt to forge a new coalition to prevent early elections, anything seemed possibly just hours ahead of the third and final reading to dissolve the Knesset. But a statement from the prime minister's office appeared aimed to mollify some: Monday's vote would go ahead as planned, it said, as would the elections scheduled for March 17, 2015, according to the online edition of the "Times of Israel."

The latest episode in the series of crises experienced by Israel's short-lived 33rd government has fed numerous headlines and even more speculation. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu himself had dismissed his coalition government on Tuesday evening (2.12.2014) after firing two of his ministers and calling for early elections. He blamed Finance Minister Yair Lapid (Yesh Atid) and Justice Minister Tzipi Livni (Hatnua) of leading a "coup" against him and said he couldn't continue to govern with constant criticism from his coalition partners. A crisis over the defense budget and a bill defining Israel as a Jewish state were two of the reasons for the most recent fallout. On Wednesday, 84 of the 120 Knesset members voted for the dissolution of parliament in a first reading, paving the way for early elections which would take place once a second and third reading pass.

A mere two years

Netanyahu's coalition government was sworn in in March 2013 - the first in a long time that did not include the ultra-orthodox parties - and also as a result of early elections. Less than two years later, voters will have to decide again who should lead the country. It is anything but certain that the next prime minister will be called Benjamin Netanyahu. Some analysts say that "anything is possible" in these elections. Since the 51-day war in Gaza last summer, Netanyahu's popularity has plummeted, although he still garners more support than other possible candidates. On the other hand, some analysts argue, he has spent too long in his third term as premier without chalking up any memorable achievements. And the public blames him for leading the country into early elections, which could cost taxpayers around $500 million (407 million euros), according to Israeli media.

Israelis appear unfazed by the latest political crisis. On Jerusalem's main shopping street, Ben Yehuda, many people said they never expected Netanyahu's coalition government to last long in the first place. However, the prospect of early elections leaves people unenthusiastic. "I think the crisis could have been resolved, said Orly Lerman. "It is not the right moment if you look at the security situation, and it will also cost a lot of money," she added. Lerman said she has always voted for Likud, but this time around she would cast her ballot for a new party. "I'm really waiting for some fresh air, something new. Hopefully there will be a new party to vote for."

Others show more sympathy for Netanyahu's decision: "I can understand him - a prime minister needs to be able to govern and should not constantly be blocked or criticized by his own coalition partners," said Uri Harel. Early elections were the right step, he added.

Competition for Netanyahu?

But the most recent polls could give Netanyahu a headache. Sixty percent of Israelis don't want Netanyahu as prime minister again, according to a poll published by Ma'ariv daily last week. Only 34 percent want him to run for a fourth term. A poll by Israel's Channel 2 TV broadcaster came up with similar results. However, the right-wing block - with Netayahu's Likud at the top - continues to lead the polls. Naftali Bennett's national-religious settler party Habayit Yehudit ("Jewish Home") comes in second, while the current foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman, whose party Yisrael Beitenu ("Our House Israel") broke off its alliance with Likud, wants to play a larger role in the next government.

Netanyahu could also face fierce competition from within his own ranks by two fairly popular politicians: Gideon Saar, a former interior minister who retired from politics about two months ago for "family reasons," and Moshe Kahlon, an ex-Likudnik and former communications minister who represents a younger generation of conservative politicians and could launch a new party. Polls attest to Kahlon's popularity, which could attract voters across the political divide.

New party alliances?

The center-left parties are also busy forging new alliances, according to Israeli media. Talks between the Labor party and Hatnua are apparently well underway. Itzhak Herzog, head of the Labor party, hopes to lead his party into the next government, and his deputy could be Tzipi Livni from Hatnua. But Yesh Atid, the surprise winner as the second-strongest party in the last elections with former TV anchor Yair Lapid, could try to get Hatnua on board to prevent a new government under Netanyahu. "Every election we have a surprise, because people make their elections on the last minute", says political scientist Gideon Rahat of Hebrew University in Jerusalem. "People are in general less loyal to parties, so there is higher volatility and also lower turnout at the polls. All these are indicators for the decline of parties as kind of focal point of identification."

In the end, the outcome of the election will be determined by campaigns issues and any developments in the meantime. "A single terrorist in Jerusalem or a rocket launcher from Gaza could determine the prime minister's political future," wrote Amos Harel in the liberal daily Ha'aretz. Observers expect Netanyahu to return to one issue that served him well in previous elections campaigns: security. But polls say many Israelis see the economy as their top priority, followed by security and questions of social justice. But anything can happen in the coming three months in an ever more volatile region. The polls and trends of today could look very old by tomorrow.