Italian Elections: The Foreign Policy Question

Whoever wins the Italian parliamentary election on April 9-10 -- incumbent center-right Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi or his bitter center-left rival and former EU Commission President Romano Prodi -- Italy can expect an uncertain future.

If Berlusconi is given five more years of power, experts believe that he will continue to undermine democracy by creating laws which suit his own interests in areas such as the media and the judicial system.

On the other hand if Prodi becomes prime minister Italy could be getting a potential time-bomb government, a mish-mash of leftists who only joined together behind their one common desire: the removal of Berlusconi from power. After achieving that, it is possible the fractious coalition would collapse in an implosion of self-interest.

But what of the wider effects? For the European Union, victory for Berlusconi's coalition would mean it would face five more years of dealing with an Italian prime minister who many perceive as divisive and obtrusive. While it is important to acknowledge differences of opinion within EU institutions and across the elites of EU member states, the overall consensus is that Berlusconi has been more problematic than not.

His numerous critics in the EU believe Berlusconi is nothing more than a businessman who has dragged Italy's economic growth rate to the lowest in Europe, lined his pockets at the country's expense, embroiled the government in corruption scandals and has continually said the wrong things at the wrong time.

Berlusconi's Iraq support an open wound

He has angered more inclusive EU quarters with his anti-immigrant rhetoric and the memory of his cold-shouldering of Europe in favour of Italy's relationship with the United States over Iraq, which so angered EU allies France and Germany, is still fresh. His continued pro-US stance, coupled with the emergence of an increasingly vocal Euro-skepticism within his own ruling coalition, has widely been blamed for weakening Italy's role within the European Union.

Under Berlusconi, Italy has become the thorn in the side of a number of European projects including the European arrest warrant -- which is still not in operation in Italy -- and the Stability and Growth Pact which Italy continues to break with public debt currently standing at around 120 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) and its budget deficit at four percent.

From the EU's point of view, there have been very few positives to come from the last five years of Berlusconi rule. The main plus point would be the political stability Italy has enjoyed since his election success in 2001. Berlusconi is the first post-war Italian prime minister to serve a full legislative period, although whether his critics at the EU would see this as a positive is debatable.

Read on: Romano Prodi, Europe and the Transatlantic Relationship

Although it would never publicly declare any preferred allegiance, there is little doubt that the EU would favour Romano Prodi as Italian leader.

While Berlusconi has worked hard to cement a stronger transatlantic relationship at the expense of closer European ties, Prodi has made it clear that a new center-left government would prioritise Europe and the Mediterranean region. "Only the resumption of a European policy can give us a voice in the world," he said recently.

Berlusconi makes no secret of the fact that he is no fan of the EU and considers Brussels a ball and chain which prevents him from acting as freely as he would like to. Prodi on the other hand has a more Eurocentric vision and an in-depth knowledge of the EU from his five years as Commission president. As Italian prime minister from 1996-1998, he also made Italy's joining of the single European currency a primary goal and won passage of budgets that significantly reduced the government deficit.

A Prodi a Eurocentric with a strong European conviction

Dr. Damian Grasmück from the Center for European Integration Studies in Bonn believes that a Prodi government would ease the tensions between Italy and the EU. "Prodi would be much more accepted," he told DW-WORLD.DE. "Under Prodi, and previous governments, Italy was known for being a strong supporter of the European integration process. That changed under Berlusconi. Prodi's strong European conviction is without question."

Marco Incenti from the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels is not so convinced. "It's difficult to tell whether a Prodi government would be better for the EU. There is no single Italian government that can steer things in one or the other direction at the European level. What can be said is that a Prodi government would be more 'organic' to the EU system, and Prodi would probably be better for Italy in Europe."

Despite his European credentials Prodi is seen by some critics as the economics professor without a political party who failed to save his government from collapsing in 1998 and who has also been investigated for corruption. Even as his latest coalition enters the final stretch of the campaign in front by a nose, some doubt whether his shaky collection of leftists would stay together long enough to form a government.

If the center-left coalition does come to power and remains intact, would that mean a reversal of Berlusconi's policy of aligning Italy closer to the United States? Prodi has said that, if elected, his government's relations with the United States would be "good and honest" despite differences on Iraq and that Italy and Europe needed close ties with Washington.

US favors Berlusconi while Prodi may strain ties

"One would expect dialogue to be more strained if Prodi were prime minister," said Charles Kupchan, the director of European Studies at the Council of Foreign Affairs, a Washington think-tank. "But Prodi will want relations to be smooth. Having good ties with the US carries weight, as Berlusconi found. And Prodi won't have to make the unpopular decision of bringing Italian troops home from Iraq. Berlusconi has spared him that."

"The Bush administration would prefer for Berlusconi to stay in power as he has done much to push Europe in a more Atlanticist direction," Kupchan added. "If he stays in power, there is unlikely to be any major changes. Berlusconi can hardly push Italy any closer to US than he already has."

Dr. Carol Mershon, an associate professor in Italian politics at the University of Virginia, agrees. "Since the establishment of the Italian Republic, Italian relations with the US have maintained the same basic profile: Italy is a loyal ally of the US. No dramatic changes in this basic profile are likely whether Prodi again becomes prime minister or Berlusconi remains as prime minister."

Little change in 'special relationship' expected

Given a further five years then, Berlusconi would be unlikely to change his foreign policy. His priorities would still remain America first, Europe second. The question would be how far would he go to follow the United States? Berlusconi could face internal unrest from possible coalition partners if he strays too far from Europe and the Italian public, with its deep-rooted belief in European integration, could also cause problems.

Italians will not only be choosing their own direction in the coming days but possibly the immediate future of their country in the international arena.