Jammu and Kashmir: What to expect as elections return?

Jammu and Kashmir is set for a local election, the first to vote in their local administration since 2014, with the polling set to be held in three phases between September 18 and October 1.

The union territory took part in the national polls this summer, with chief election commissioner Rajiv Kumar saying people chose "ballots over bullets" and praising the 58% turnout in June. While announcing the local poll schedule in Jammu and Kashmir, Kumar said he hopes for a similar response in the upcoming vote.

The Himalayan region, which is claimed by both India and Pakistan, has been embroiled in violence since the start of armed insurgency there in 1989. Tens of thousands of people have been killed in the ensuing violence. 

New Delhi still in control

During the last such election, Jammu and Kashmir were still considered a state. State governments were elected every six years, but the last one, the coalition of regional Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), did not last a full term — it was elected in 2014 and lost its majority in 2018.

Then, in 2019, the government of Prime Minister Narendra Modi revoked Jammu and Kashmir's semi-autonomous status and split the state into two federally administered territories.

This granted New Delhi much more direct control over the restive region that has struggled with an Islamist insurgency for decades.

And even after the local polls are done and the new administration is in place, its officials will still have to leave many key decisions about the region's economy and security to the national government in New Delhi and to its local representative, Lieutenant Governor Manoj Sinha.

'We are determined to have statehood restored'

 A spokesman for the PDP told DW that his party wants to see the region regain its status as one of India's states.

"This is not what we hoped for and want statehood restored. But at least we will have people's representation in the assembly and a voice for the people that has not been heard," PDP spokesperson Mohit Bhan said.

Another regional political party, the Jammu and Kashmir National Conference, has already vowed to push for an India-Pakistan dialogue on Kashmir, introduce laws to protect jobs and land, and seek the release of political prisoners.

It also wants local officials to regain their former power.

"We are determined to have statehood restored. The government has already made this promise to the Supreme Court. If it does not restore statehood willingly, we will pursue justice through the court. With statehood, the government of Jammu and Kashmir will have the powers required to fulfill promises," the National Conference vice president, Omar Abdullah, told local media.

More deadly attacks in Jammu

The election revival is taking place amid an uptick in violence. On July 8, five Indian army soldiers were killed and five others were injured in an ambush by militants on an army convoy in Kathua district. In June, at least nine people were killed and 33 injured when a bus carrying Hindu pilgrims plunged into a deep gorge after a militant attack in Reasi district.

Experts have noted that more and more violent incidents are reported in the Jammu region of Jammu and Kashmir, which had mostly been spared of violence in the past. In the first six months of 2024, 17 people were killed in Jammu, compared to 12 for the entirety of last year.

Praveen Dhonti, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group, a global non-profit organization, said elections on its own would not be relevant unless New Delhi engaged in a meaningful political process to address growing alienation.

"It is important for all relevant stakeholders to be factored in this dialogue process and it must be sincere. What is pertinent is that statehood be also restored as it empowers the government," Dhonti told DW.

Power struggle on the horizon

Radha Kumar, a former Kashmir interlocutor and a specialist on peace and conflict in South Asia, told DW that this election is crucial, as it will finally give people a chance to show how they feel about Jammu and Kashmir being divided and demoted to a union territory.

"The people's response to these events will be expressed in this election. I am sure that parties which opposed the Modi administration's actions will do very well," Kumar told DW.

Kumar said she did not expect the newly elected administration or legislature will meekly submit to the new rules that empower the lieutenant governor.

"They (legislators) will assert themselves and challenge any policy decisions that have not been debated in the assembly or recommended by the elected administration. The National Conference manifesto has promised to work for restoration of special status and full statehood. Even the pro-BJP Apni Party has sought full statehood," said Kumar.

Voters to send a signal for the future

Other analysts pointed out that, despite reduced legislative powers, local government should be viewed as a step towards greater political empowerment.

"The import of these elections does not lie in who will ultimately govern Jammu and Kashmir. It lies in the political signals it sends in terms of are people going to step out in big numbers to vote? Are they willing to be stakeholders in the democratic process?" Navnita Chadha Behera, a political scientist and Kashmir expert, told DW.

"The significance of these elections can only be understood in the long term. It might offer a glimpse in what happens in next few years and not next few months," added Behera.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic