A decisive margin

Joko Widodo, known by his nickname Jokowi, was declared the winner of Indonesia's presidential election. The 53-year-old governor of Jakarta won around 53 percent of the nearly 133 million valid ballots cast. His rival, ex-general Prabowo Subianto - who was on his third bid for the presidency - won 62.5 million votes, or some 47 percent, according to the final results. Voter turnout was 70.7 percent.

But Prabowo has refused to accept defeat, insisting his opponent cheated. Just before the official results were released, the 62-year-old accused Jokowi's team of "massive, structured and systematic fraud" and announced he was withdrawing from the process. His campaign team has said that Prabowo was contesting the voting procedure and his lawyers were preparing to file paperwork with the Constitutional Court.

Paul Rowland, an independent political analyst based in Jakarta says in a DW interview that given what is publicly known about the Election Day process, it is highly unlikely that the irregularities claimed by Prabowo affected the overall result of the election.

DW: What does Jokowi's win mean for Indonesia?

Paul Rowland: Jokowi's win means that Indonesia will continue its forward trajectory as a democracy and is likely to see economic improvement as well. Widodo is the first Indonesian president that comes neither from the military, nor the ruling elite. He has nine years of experience in executive government at lower levels where he has resolved conflicts, cut red tape and improved services. He is hard working and known for seeking practical rather than ideological solutions.

What is the next challenge for Jokowi?

The next challenge for Jokowi is that of selecting a cabinet. He has already indicated a preference for technocratic professionals even in portfolios such as Energy and Mines that are traditionally assigned to political parties.

While he will undoubtedly need to balance the needs of the parties that supported his bid for president, he has not made the kind of deals that so hobbled outgoing president Yudhoyono's government. If he can name a clean and competent cabinet, he will be better able to deliver. His second biggest challenge will be one of managing expectations as he begins to address Indonesia's complex problems.

Is Jokowi's winning margin of six percent a decisive one?

Yes. Six percent is a healthy margin in most countries. Indonesia's previous presidential elections have been lopsided and this result is much closer but it indicates a hard-fought campaign, which is healthy for Indonesia's democracy.

Would Prabowo's claim of electoral fraud in certain areas change the overall results, even if they turned out to be true?

We have yet to see details of the claims so it is hard to fully evaluate them. However, based on what he and members of his campaign team have said, it is hard to see how they could be the basis of overturning the result of the election. His brother, Hashim, alleges that there were irregularities in 52,000 polling stations that could affect 21 million votes.

While there are undoubtedly many polling stations with some irregularities, it is highly unlikely, given what we know about the Election Day process, that the irregularities affected the overall result of the election. Every election in every country has irregularities, usually minor variances of the election procedures such as the physical set up of the polling station.

Objective observers identified many irregularities in every previous Indonesian election, a function of the difficulty of hiring and training 4.5 million mostly ad-hoc election officials across a huge archipelago. The bottom line in this case is that the numbers add up.

The official result has been independently verified to within one percentage point by no fewer than eight reputable organizations that conducted quick counts on Election Day and by at least one highly credible citizen driven complete parallel tabulation using polling station results posted on the Internet. I have looked at the various different results and found little variance, pointing to the probability of an accurate official result. The Election Commission has managed an open, free and transparent process in an extremely tense and complex environment.

Is Prabowo's challenge likely to prolong the political uncertainty in the country's transition to democracy?

While he is entitled to challenge the results before the Constitutional Court, it seems as though more and more Indonesians are acknowledging that Jokowi has won. So, while we need to wait for a ruling from the Constitutional Court, the result of the election is clear and most Indonesians are going to be taking time off with family for the Eid holiday. Indonesians are moving on.

How are Prabowo's electoral allies responding to the situation?

There is a split in their camp. The chair of his campaign team resigned today, stating that he had failed in his job and implying that the candidate should accept the obvious.

Meanwhile, Vice-presidential candidate Hatta Rajasa has been conspicuously absent from Prabowo's recent press conferences, and today sent a congratulatory message to Jokowi and Kalla. Other members of his coalition such as Golkar Chief Aburizal Bakrie and former Religious Affairs Minister Suryadharma Ali have remained solidly behind Prabowo. There are signs of an impending split in Golkar, however, that could alter the equation again.

If the ex-general's coalition does manage to hold, it would have the majority in the next parliament. What effect would this have on Jokowi's presidency?

Coalitions in Indonesia do not last very long or very disciplined. President Yudhoyono has notionally had a coalition that held more than 70 percent of the seats in the legislature for the last five years and has often been challenged by members of the coalition such as Golkar. Should Prabowo's "permanent coalition" prove durable and disciplined, however, they could cause problems.

Supporters of Prabowo have been holding protests outside the Election Commission in Jakarta. Do you expect any massive demonstrations?

No. So far the demonstrations have been small. Indonesians have largely moved on.

Paul Rowland is an independent political analyst based in Jakarta.