Kiir to sign South Sudan deal

Kiir delayed signing the deal in the Ethiopian capital last week saying he needed more time for consultations. This prompted US threats of UN sanctions if he did not meet a two-week deadline to agree to the pact.

Rebel leader Riek Machar, Kiir's former deputy until he was sacked in 2013, has already signed the peace deal that was brokered by the regional African grouping IGAD.

DW has been talking to Peter Schumann, a former UN coordinator in southern Sudan

DW: What is likely to change once President Kiir has signed the peace deal?

I am not convinced that we will witness any significant changes. The government is convinced that it can resolve its differences with the SPLM [Sudan People's Liberation Movement] and opposition through military means. There is absolutely no indication that they will move to a political process, a credible, lasting political process. The divisions between Riek Machar and Salva Kiir and a few other actors on both sides are so deep-rooted that I have, unfortunately, no hope that we will see an end to the violence, which is escalating. There is massive escalation. We are witnessing massive forced displacements, atrocities, and escalating brutality.

So Kiir is only signing the deal because he is fearful of UN sanctions?

Whether he signs or not is a bit irrelevant. He may sign because of threats from the US government and other sides, maybe because of a bit of pressure from his supporters within IGAD, in particular [Ugandan President Yoweri] Museveni. What is lacking are the changes on the ground suggesting that fighting could cease. We see escalating violence, we now see that the Equatorias, Western and Central Equatoria are increasingly involved.

I understand you are very concerned about the situation in Western Equatoria that could damage the whole peace process. Why is that?

The Equatorians were always a stability factor, but since February, March, April, they have been increasingly drawn into the conflict between Riek Machar and Salva Kiir. Basically the government had issued an order that they should recruit a certain number of young men to replenish the ranks of the SPLA, because the government had lost a lot of soldiers, who had defected to Riek Machar. This was the beginning of massive pressure - and atrocities - against people in the Equatorias. They began opposing the government, and the governor of Western Equatoria was particularly outspoken. He was dismissed by Salva Kiir a few days before he went to Addis Ababa for the signing, or rather "non-signing," of the agreement. If the Equatorias become increasingly unstable, this means destabilization along the border to Congo and Uganda, we also have destabilization along the border to Ethiopia and Sudan, and in the center we have Juba protected by UPDF [Uganda People's Defense Force] forces from Uganda. I am very concerned that this could result in the disintegration of the country.

So the country itself could split again?

Not in terms of international boundaries being drawn again, but in the sense that the country disintegrates as a society. We had a fairly stable situation in 2009 even up to independence in 2011, when the groups were given enough political space and could start thinking about their own future. But increasingly the central government has interfered by imposing governors from outside. From the ten elected governors, there are only two left - the other eight were replaced by Salva Kiir with army generals. This is a remilitarization of key political positions at the state level.

Peter Schumann is a former UN coordinator in southern Sudan

Interview: Sarah Steffen