Lebanon, Hezbollah and the fear of war

In late July, Israel's Security Cabinet reached a decision: It authorized Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant "to decide how and when action will be taken against the Hezbollah terrorist organization," as the prime minister's office announced. Previously, Netanyahu had threatened the pro-Iranian militia with having to pay a "high price" for a rocket attack targeting a soccer pitch in the Golan Heights that was allegedly carried out by Hezbollah. Twelve young people were killed in the attack.

For its part, Hezbollah has stated it didn't fire the rockets. The militia is designated as a terrorist organization by the US, Germany and others — but endorsed by Iran. The EU, meanwhile, lists Hezbollah's armed wing as a terrorist organization.

At the time, Israel responded that it did want to strike Hezbollah but did not want to plunge the entire Middle East into war. The statement was made by several unnamed Israeli officials speaking with the Reuters news agency.

"The estimation is that the response will not lead to an all-out war," Reuters cited one of its sources. "That would not be in our interest at this point."

Spending nights away from home, seeking safety

In fact, war-like conditions already prevail in southern Lebanon along the border with Israel, according to Michael Bauer, head of the Beirut office of the Konrad Adenauer Foundation, who is currently staying in Jordan.

As he pointed out, time and again, the Israeli army had also attacked Hezbollah targets in other parts of the country. "Of course, the Lebanese are now fearing that they could enter into a new phase of the conflict," he said.

They were also afraid of Israel's army selecting further targets and using different weapons systems. A young Lebanese woman who prefered to remain anonymous told DW that she had spent the second consecutive night away from her home in Dahieh, because the district was under Hezbollah's control.

Admittedly, she said, the danger of an escalation was not yet incalculably high at this point, but she preferred getting to safety.

Another Lebanese woman said she wasn't concerned herself, believing the risk was still manageable. She was, however, worried about several members of her family who live in the country's south. 

Weak state, weakened society

If the conflict expanded, it would hit an already feeble state. According to a recent World Bank report, Lebanon has massive debts: its liabilities amount to 180% of GDP, compared to 201% in 2023.

According to another World Bank report, Lebanon's poverty rate has tripled during the last decade, with 44% of the Lebanese population living below the poverty line in 2024. 

Inflation, at least, could shrink this year — from 221% in 2023 to 83% in 2024.

For years, the Lebanese state has displayed little to no capacity to act. Its flaws were highlighted in August 2020, for example, when 2,750 tons of ammonium nitrate detonated in a massive explosion at a storage facility in Beirut's port. As a result, large parts of the city were destroyed. Some 200 people were killed and more than 6,500 were injured in the accident.

Over 30,000 people were forced to leave their homes. For years, Lebanese authorities had neglected to transport the chemicals, which were known to be hazardous, to a safe place.

Other burdens have their roots in neighboring countries. For example, some 1.5 million Syrians came to Lebanon to seek shelter from the war in their native country. Lebanon is also home to a quarter of a million Palestinian refugees who, partly, have been living in camps for decades.

A potential further escalation of the Israel-Hezbollah confrontation is already beginning to affect Lebanon: international airlines have suspended or completely canceled their flights to and from Beirut.

"In addition, international travel warnings have tightened, with already existing travel warnings being urgently repeated," said Bauer. Germany's Foreign Office in Berlin has also called on all Germans to leave the country.

Remaining infrastructure in danger

Months ago, Nasser Saidi, the former economy minister and vice governor of the Lebanese Central Bank, warned of an expansion of the Israel-Hamas war to his country. "The economic situation would deteriorate quickly," he told The National newspaper in Abu Dhabi.

If the situation escalates, the country's remaining infrastructure, including ports and airport, could be destroyed. "Those are, in the face of the country's considerable dependence on the Lebanese diaspora, Lebanon's economic lifeline."

An expansion of the conflict will likely have catastrophic consequences — that's also the assessment of a study published by the Washington-based think tank Atlantic Council in July. This could herald a return to "permanent wars." In addition, Iran-supported militants from the entire region could join Hezbollah, which would make the conflict even more complex and precarious.

Lebanon would be at the epicenter of those tensions. And, according to Bauer, the country is certainly not capable of coping with another crisis — not to mention a war with Israel.

Rola Farhat in Beirut contributed to this article, which was originally written in German.