Starting from scratch

For former dictator Moammar Gadhafi, political parties were a repulsive invention of the West. Anyone organizing himself into a political party was betraying the country, Gadhafi professed in his "Green Book." In the over 40 years of his sole reign, there was neither a parliament nor a constitution - and the mere affiliation with a party could be punished with death.

Some nine months after the self-proclaimed revolutionary leader Gadhafi was toppled and killed, Libyans are facing an entirely new form of reality. The Libyan population is being called to the ballot box on July 7 - and it can choose from more than 3,800 candidates, some 140 parties and over 370 lists. It's an historical day. The country is experiencing its first "real" election in almost a century. For most of the some 2.8 million registered voters, it's the first time they have ever voted in their lives.

A new experience

Libya's experiment in democracy is virtually starting from scratch. It is to be carried out as a long process in various stages. In this round, no parliament will be immediately elected but rather a constituent assembly. Its 200 members are to agree on the make-up of an expert committee, which in turn has to reach a consensus on a draft constitution. Voters will then return to the ballot box to vote on the proposed constitution.

For the oil-rich desert nation, in which an entire generation has hardly known anything else than the regime of the brutal eccentric Gadhafi, this process poses an enormous challenge. The security situation is accordingly tense, the more so as Gadhafi's overthrow also released conflicts which could only be carried out in secrecy during his reign. Armed conflicts between rival groupings, rebel militia and tribal clans occur regularly while in eastern Libya, significant forces are calling for a boycott of the constituent elections.

Repeated heavy fighting

The National Transitional Council in Libya, which has governed the country since the end of the civil war, can hardly get the security situation under control in many places. Again and again, heavy fighting is reported from various parts of the country. Politically motivated attacks, like that against the British ambassador's car in Benghazi on June 11, are accumulating as well. There is no lack of weapons. The German journalist and Libya expert Stefan Buchen said he mainly sees forces at work here "which successfully participated in the fight against Gadhafi."

"These groups for their part now want to ensure their positions of power," Buchen said. But he said militia loyal to Gadhafi were also surfacing of late. Whoever will have the say in Libya in the near future faces immense tasks. The transition to a democratic system and the solution of numerous conflicts call for the establishment of a new judicial and security apparatus, said Wolfram Lacher, Libya expert from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP) in Berlin.

For Libyan voters, however, orientating themselves among the over 2,600 independent and 1,200 listed candidates is difficult - especially since there is no democratic election tradition. Stefan Buchen, who reported from Libya during the civil war, said a candidate's regional origin is in many cases more the decisive factor for voters rather than his or her political program. Many of the current conflicts about the composition of the general assembly are occurring between rivaling cities and regions - and less so between parties.

Lacking finances

On the streets of the capital Tripoli, many voters appear to be only somewhat interested in the entire process. One woman interviewed by DW's Arab correspondent is perplexed by the election posters on a central square in Tripoli and asks why they replaced the "old martyr pictures."

"Are the candidates and martyrs now coequal?" she said. A young man on the other hand said there weren't enough election posters.

"My father is running but he just doesn't have the money for a real election campaign," said journalist Takkiyuddin Schalawi from the northeastern Libyan city of Derna. The government did not support him sufficiently, as is the case with many other candidates. Political activists like the blogger Rashad Elewah from Marzak in southern Libya complain about the "lacking financial supply" for independent candidates.

So who is going to win? Islamist forces? Buchen says it is hard to say. "If the elections proceed without major incidents, there will probably be no clearly divided political camps in the general assembly, as was the case in Tunisia or Egypt," he said. However, Buchen said he didn't rule out the possibility that Islamist-influenced parties come out on top.

"During the dictatorship, many Libyans fled into religiousness," he told DW. "This creates a fertile ground for parties which call on Islam as their first point of reference." This includes the Muslim Brotherhood, who are running under the label of the "Party for Justice and Development."

But observers said some of the more liberal-orientated parties also have a good chance of gaining seats, for example the party of the former interim prime minister Mahmoud Jibril, who is calling for a more modern constitutional state. No one knows for certain who will be the major winner of these elections. Since a rigid ban on political parties existed for over 40 years under Gadhafi and all research and media only served one leader, there are no reliable election forecasts.

Author: Nader Alsarras / sac
Editor: Rob Mudge