'Aiming for zero poverty'

DW: What is the biggest challenge for development in poor countries when looking at this year's report?

Khalid Malik: I think the fundamental challenges of development at any time is to improve the lives of people, and what we have been seeing in the last few years is a slowing down of human development progress. In the 2013 report, the previous report, we talked about how 40 countries were doing better than expected over the last decade and that things are looking much better.

But, in the last few years you can see that is slowing down. There's also a sense of precariousness and there is greater uncertainty. This year's report is on vulnerability and resilience and it goes into much more detail into understanding these issues. Not only to have progress on human development, but increasing choices and making sure they are secure.

What kind of people are most vulnerable?

Most of the work, traditionally, on vulnerability is in relation to specific risks, like disasters and conflicts. We tried to take a deeper approach, to understand the underlying drivers of vulnerability and how individuals and society can become more resilient. Why are some people or communities more resilient than others, even when they face the same risks?

So, why are they?

We developed two basic propositions. One is that people's vulnerability is influenced by the capabilities of health and education. If you are better educated, richer, you can deal with risk better. And the context you inhabit, the societal context, the position you are in - if you are in the minority in a country, it matters. The other important proposition is that the failure to protect people against vulnerability is often a consequence of poor policies and poor social institutions. That's the general thrust of the report.

So, take the case of the poor. We have a new number, 1.5 billion people who are living in multi-dimensional poverty worldwide; another 800 million people live just above the poverty threshold. So, if they get an additional shock these people can be pushed back into poverty. Currently, 80 percent of the world lacks social protection, 12 percent of the world suffers from chronic hunger and nearly half of all workers - more than 1.5 billion people – are in informal or precarious employment. So, the reality is, there are a lot of people who are vulnerable. There are a lot of people who you would not think of initially as being vulnerable.

It's been said that during the world economic crisis, countries with stronger social cohesion and more social protection did better. Why is that?

That's correct. Most of the evidence we looked at shows that if you have a more equal society it's also a more cohesive society. And then, if that is the case, you do better on most aspects of human development, including economic growth. So any movement towards that is important. Take the case of Scandinavian countries: in Europe they did better in response to [economic] shocks than other countries. They had a lower level of unemployed people and they protected their consumption levels. They were able to recover quicker from the crisis than other countries.

One of the things that this report promotes is social protection. At the moment only 20 percent of all people in the world have some form of social protection. Aren't poor countries simply too poor to pay for basic social services or protection?

The report goes into that in considerable detail and it takes a historical perspective. In countries like Costa Rica, Scandinavian countries, or South Korea, the first step towards basic social services was taken at relatively low levels of income per capita. In fact, lower than what south Asia has today. We argue that universal access to social services is possible for most countries, if not all countries. The budget issues are not that significant. It takes time to build it up but it has a much larger return than is expected. We actually debunk this notion that you have to be rich before you can finance universal social services.

How much money do you need to install minimum social protection?

It depends what you put in to it, if you look at the social protection floor they estimate that we're talking about three to five percent. The social floors initiative looked in great detail at 12 low income countries in this package of essential social transfers and services, health care, primary education, pensions, unemployment protection and child care. And they've tried to estimate for low income countries whether it's affordable.

You're talking about three to five percent of GDP in the case of low income countries. So it's possible to do this. And the gains are quite large because it leads to greater prosperity. And of course it does not only depend on the level of budget but also what you do with it.

And let me give you an example. In China some years ago, there was a debate about whether to introduce a social protection system. And finally a political decision was taken that this is actually a basic right of every Chinese citizen. And since they took that basic decision, they are now trying to construct a full package. It's not necessarily the same package you get in developed countries, but it is a package which allows people to continue to live their lives if things don't go well for them.

The current human development report, in the lead-up to the Post-2015 Development Goals, argues that it is time for the international community to commit to universal public services and to make the reduction in vulnerability a priority in international frameworks. Would you say the world should aim for resilient development goals rather than sustainable development goals?

We don't want to get caught up in epistemological conversations. But take the case of the poverty goal. I think there is increasing convergence on aiming for zero poverty. But what we are saying is: it cannot just be zero poverty, it also has to stay at zero. We do not allow things to go back.

Secondly, the report also implies that issues of social protection and jobs have to become central to the way we look at these things. Whether you call it resilience or sustainable: you need to find ways of not having reversals, so that today's choices are not restricted tomorrow. We also make the argument that you can do certain things at the national level, but you also need progress at the global level too in order to make these things actually work.

Khalid Malik was first appointed Director of the UN Development Program's Human Development Report in 2011. Born in Pakistan, he studied economics in Pakistan and the UK and has had a long and distinguished career with the UN.