Middle East 2023: War instead of 'era of peace'

Before the October 7 attacks, one could have thought that many leaders of the Arab world had forgotten about the Palestinians.

Political calculations, above all the two-state-solution with an independent Palestinian state, seemed to be of little concern any longer.

Priorities had apparently shifted away from the Palestinians and, remarkably, toward Israel.

In 2020, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan signed normalization agreements with Israel.

Also, talks with Saudi Arabia seemed to put Israel well on the way to peace with the influential neighbor to its south. According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, all of this heralded an "era of peace."

But then came the October 7 attacks by the militant organization Hamas, which is classified as a terrorist organization in Germany, the EU, the US and by several other governments. Hamas fighters killed around 1,200 Israeli citizens and kidnapped some 250 people. Around half have been released since, in exchange for Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails.

In turn, Israel launched airstrikes on the Gaza Strip, and a ground offensive began at the end of October. Israel has accused Hamas of installing its military infrastructure in areas inhabited or used by civilians.

The Hamas-run Health Ministry has since put the number of deaths in the Gaza Strip at more than 21,000.

Meanwhile, many Arab states have expressed their solidarity with Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.

Jordanian Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi, for example, said the war that Israel is waging against Hamas in the Gaza Strip is a "blatant aggression" against Palestinian civilians and threatens to destabilize the entire Middle East. By blocking the supply of food, medicine and fuel, he said, Israel was committing "war crimes."

Palestinians back on the agenda

As of now, the Hamas terror attacks did at least achieve one thing: The Palestinians and their concerns have returned to regional and international agendas. The Middle East conflict, which has remained unresolved for more than 70 years, is now back in the spotlight.

"Arab states are driven by their own stability concerns," said Andre Bank, Middle East researcher at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies, a Hamburg-based think tank.

Israel's direct neighbors Jordan and Egypt both signed peace treaties with Israel decades ago. They now fear, however, that a further escalation in Gaza or the occupied West Bank might lead to a major displacement of Palestinians which could then lead to unrest in their own countries.

"As a result, demonstrations are allowed in Egypt, but not on Cairo's Tahrir Square, which was the center of the democracy movement in 2011," Bank told DW, adding that "[Egyptian] President Abdel Fattah el-Sissi is worried that such protests could turn into demonstrations of solidarity in the spirit of the Arab Spring."

In Jordan, pro-Palestinian protests are allowed, however, not near the border with the West Bank. "The concern is that protests there could easily get out of control," said Bank.

How have Gulf states reacted?

In the Gulf states, though, there have hardly been any protests so far. This is consistent with the Emirates' positioning, Bank told DW. The UAE even sided with Israel, at least initially, he added.

The small state of Qatar — some of the Hamas leadership live in the Qatari capital, Doha — has publicly criticized Israel several times. However, in an interview with the German newspaper Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung at the end of November, Qatar's head of government, Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, described his country's relationship with Israel as "pragmatic."

"We in Qatar have repeatedly said that the problems are the occupation and the Palestinian issue, there is no other problem than that," he said. If a solution to these issues is not found, the region would forever be trapped in a cycle of violence, Al Thani added. "Otherwise, why should we have a problem with Israel if this is seriously addressed?"

Israel remains attractive partner for Arab countries

But experts doubt the rapprochement between Israel and the Arab world will remain deadlocked.

Johannes Becke, professor of Israel and Middle East Studies at the Heidelberg University of Jewish Studies, told DW that "harsh rhetoric was expressed at the summit of Arab-Muslim states in Riyadh at the beginning of November, but it also stopped right there."

The main reasons for this, he said, are the economic and geostrategic interests of Arab states with regard to Israel that remain largely untouched by the conflict in Gaza.

Israel is generally regarded as highly attractive partner for business and technology. Rapprochement with Israel also brings advantages in relations with the United States and other Western countries, he said.

Furthermore, Israel is an important geostrategic partner for those countries that — like the Gulf states — also want to see Iran's influence in the region limited.

Saudi Arabia intercepted missiles aimed at Israel

"Saudi Arabia improved its relations with Iran in 2023," said Becke. However, the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which until the Hamas attacks appeared to be rapid, seems to be on hold for the time being due to the war in Gaza.

However, when Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen started firing missiles toward Israel in early December to support Hamas in its fight against Israel, Saudi Arabia took action and intercepted the missiles.

"Until recently, these missiles were fired towards Saudi Arabia itself and may also be aimed at the kingdom again," said Becke. "In this sense, the geopolitical arguments in favor of an Arab-Israeli rapprochement remain unchanged, rather on the contrary, the Hamas attack may even have strengthened them."

Gaza conflict's potential for mobilization

Still, the ongoing pro-Palestinian rallies in the Arab and Islamic world demonstrate the mobilization potential of the war. This is precisely why Arab governments are likely to be interested in ending it as quickly and as permanently as possible, before the protests jeopardize their own stability.

However, rapprochement with Israel may only be resumed after the war, and once the Palestinians benefit from of a new version of the two-state solution. In the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung interview, Qatar's head of government Al-Thani already outlined the framework for this: "The Palestinian issue can no longer be swept under the carpet," he said.

This article was originally written in German.