Moldovan elections

Voting began at 7.00 am (0500 CET) on Wednesday in an election that will determine who succeeds President Vladimir Voronin, the Communist strongman who has ruled Europe's poorest country since 2001.

Around 2.6 million voters are set to choose a new parliament in this nation of 4.3 million people wedged between Ukraine and Romania.

The vote will affect how the former Soviet republic steers its foreign policy between the twin demands of the European Union and Moscow.

There is also the matter of relations with Romania, with which Moldova shares a common language and history. Relations between the two countries have been strained under President Voronin.

Once a new parliament is formed, it is to select a successor to Voronin, who must step down after serving the maximum two four-year terms permitted by the constitution.

Last month, Voronin reluctantly called new elections after lawmakers failed to elect a new president due to a boycott by liberal opposition parties, which accused his ruling Communist Party of stealing the last election in April.

In the April 5 election, the Communists won about 50 percent of the vote but were accused of fraud, prompting huge street protests and the sacking of the parliament building in Chisinau by young rioters.

Permutations cloud Moldova's future

Political analysts and opinion polls predict the Communist Party will take first place, but will not win the 61 out of 101 seats needed for the party to fully control the selection of the next president. Some polls indicate a clear drop in support for the Communists, who are expected to get just 30 percent of the vote this time.

In the unlikely event that the Communists enjoy a landslide victory, they will then be able to form a government and elect a president, with close relations with Russia likely to remain a pillar of Moldova's foreign policy.

If the Communists win between 52 and 60 seats, they will need the help of another party to elect a president. One possibility is the centrist Democratic Party and its pro-Western leader Marian Lupu.

If the Communists suffer the larger drop in popularity that some observers are predicting, the pro-Romanian and pro-Western parties will come into play and Moldova's foreign policy could change significantly.

This could lead to a government more in favor of pursuing NATO membership and one which could opt to leave the post-Soviet Commonwealth of Independent States, a move that would considerably upset relations with Russia.

Besides the Communists, four opposition parties are tipped to have a chance of passing the 5 percent barrier needed to win seats.

Experts predict continued stalemate

The country's ongoing political crisis has caused exasperation among Moldovan voters but analysts say there is a strong likelihood that the current impasse will continue, given that the population is split between pro-opposition urban youth and older rural voters loyal to the Communists.

Fuelling the divide is Moldova's poverty, which leads numerous working-age adults to seek employment abroad, leaving behind the young and the elderly.

Many believe that a coalition is the solution to the deadlock, and last week, Voronin announced that the Communist Party was open to a coalition with its opponents, after previously accusing them of plotting a coup.

However the three main liberal opposition parties have so far ruled out any dialogue with the Communists.

The diplomatic stakes are also high – while all major parties favor bringing Moldova into the European Union, the Communists have pursued an increasingly pro-Russian line in recent months.

Voronin's government has accused neighboring Romania, an EU member state, of fomenting the April riots.

Romania denies the charges, but it has raised questions about the Moldovan government's handling of the disputed election.

Around 200 observers from the Organization for Cooperation and Security in Europe (OCSE) were on hand to monitor Wednesday's vote.

nda/av/Reuters/ap/AFP
Editor: Chuck Penfold