Will Montenegro turn its back on the West?

Until recently, the small Balkan country of Montenegro seemed to be on a clear pro-European path. Autocratic but pro-Western President Milo Djukanovic, in power for three decades, was voted out of office in April 2023 after his party, the Democratic Party of Socialists, was sent into opposition in the summer of 2020.

Since then, Montenegro's European Union integration, its trans-Atlantic orientation and its reform policy, particularly the fight against corruption and organized crime, have not been called into question.

But observers say that this could now be set to change, thanks to a new government. "It is dangerously dividing society and calling the European path and character of the state into question," Zeljko Ivanovic, director of the center-left Vijesti newspaper, wrote this week.

Montenegrin Prime Minister Milojko Spajic, from the centrist Europe Now Alliance, who has been in office since the fall of 2023, presented his reshuffled cabinet last week. The new constellation is supported by a coalition that includes the leaders of pro-Serbia and pro-Russia parties, including Andrija Mandic and Milan Knezevic, who head the right wing, nationalist New Serbian Democracy (NSD) and Democratic People's Party of Montenegro (DNP) respectively.

Pro-Europe government makes deal with the far right

The two are avowed Putin supporters, indirectly oppose Montenegro's independence from Serbia and reject both EU integration and NATO membership. Instead, they have called into question the very identity and raison d'etre of their country by advocating for close ties between Montenegro and Serbia, opposing Kosovo as an independent state and denying the Srebrenica genocide.

The entry of politicians such as Mandic and Knezevic into the governing coalition was part of a deal between Prime Minister Spajic and pro-Serbia parties.

After the June 2023 election, Spajic's pro-European party only held a slim majority and, to win power, had to be supported by 13 lawmakers from the pro-Serbia bloc. In return, these parties were promised the ministerial posts that they have just been given. Neither the NSD and DNP, nor their leaders Mandic and Knezevic, hold any key posts in the new government. But whether the cooperation will provide "more stability" for Spajic's government, as the prime minister has promised, is questionable.

Montenegro a 'victim' of 'primitive political trade,' 'irresponsibility'

Reactions to the new government were swift at home and abroad. Montenegrin President Jakov Milatovic, who parted ways with Spajic and his party a few months ago over a dispute about the national energy company, wrote in a July 23 post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter) that "Montenegro is a victim of the most primitive political trade and irresponsibility that the prime minister continuously demonstrates toward the management of the country."

The leader of the opposition DPS, Andrija Nikolic, expressed similar views. However, in contrast to Milatovic, who is considered to be pro-Serbia, he was much more direct in his criticism. "This is a government that is run from Moscow and Belgrade," he told Montenegrin media last week.

The US government, which had previously taken a clear stand against the involvement of pro-Serbia parties, reacted promptly.

In a statement to Radio Free Europe's Croatian service, the US embassy in the capital, Podgorica, said it was concerned about the inclusion in the Montenegrin government of parties and leaders who do not condemn Russian aggression against Ukraine, reject EU sanctions against Russia and whose actions contradict the principle of neighborly relations.

High-ranking politicians unwelcome in Croatia

Neighboring Croatia had a particularly strong reaction: The day after the government reshuffle, Croatia's Foreign Affairs Ministry declared three high-ranking politicians to be persona non grata.

In addition to Mandic and Knezevic, this included Deputy Prime Minister Aleksa Becic, a centrist politician whose positions often fluctuate. The three are no longer welcome in Croatia due to systematically disrupting neighborly relations and abusing Croatia for domestic political purposes, the statement said.

The context of this move is a resolution passed by the Montenegrin parliament at the end of June with regard to the Jasenovac concentration camp, set up during World War II.

Jasenovac was a Croatian concentration camp where Serbs, Jews and Roma were murdered, and it remains a symbol of Serbian-Croatian enmity to this day.

The resolution was passed in response to one by the UN in early July that condemned any denial of the Srebrenica genocide. Since Montenegro voted in favor of the Srebrenica resolution, pro-Serbian forces in Montenegro pushed through the resolution to declare the Jasenovac camp genocidal as a "countermeasure," according to observers in Croatia.

Foreign policy endangered

How will the entry of pro-Serbia and pro-Russia parties affect Montenegro's foreign policy? Zlatko Vujovic, a political scientist from the Center for Monitoring and Research in Podgorica, believes this development is no surprise because it is a process that has been underway for some time.

"We now have the forces that are under the control of Serbian President Vucic and that are working to prevent Montenegro from joining the EU and distancing itself from NATO," he told DW.

"We now have a large group within the government that does not support Montenegrin membership in NATO and rapprochement with the EU," Vuk Maras, an anti-corruption activist and head of the Balkan Investigative Reporting Network in Montenegro, told DW. "I am sure that sooner or later this group will take measures that are directed against Montenegro's pro-Western stance."

For Vijesti's Ivanovic, the political situation in Montenegro remains open but only to two possibilities: "In the abyss or in the EU," he wrote.

When it comes to the tense Montenegro-Croatia relationship, Croatian political scientist Zarko Puhovski believes the problem with the Jasenovac resolution has been exaggerated. The bigger issue is that the Croatian government failed to acknowledge atrocities in Jasenovac, he added.

"Croatia actually has other problems with its neighbor, such as the undefined border and outstanding property claims," he said.

This article was originally written in German.