IAEA report
November 6, 2011
The United Nations' nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), is set to publish an assessment of Iran's push for nuclear weapons in the coming week, diplomats said on Sunday.
The intelligence update, which diplomats say will be circulated among IAEA members on Tuesday or Wednesday, will focus on Iran's alleged efforts to put radioactive material in a warhead and and develop missiles.
"The report is not going to include some sort of 'smoking gun'," an unnamed Western diplomat told the AFP news agency. "But it will be an extensive body of evidence that will be very hard for Iran to refute as forgery, as they have done in the past."
Iranian officials have reportedly already seen the IAEA information, and Foreign Minister Ali Akbar Salehi said in comments published in Iran on Sunday that it was based on "counterfeit" claims.
"They are claiming that they are going to publish new documents," said Salehi. "We know what the truth is - let them publish them and we'll see what happens. Will they not be called into question as an agency that is under pressure from foreign powers?"
IAEA head Yukiya Amano said in September's report he was "increasingly concerned" about the "possible military dimension" of Iran's atomic activities, including those "related to the development of a nuclear payload for a missile."
New sanctions?
The new intelligence, expected in an annex of the main Iran report, will include satellite imagery of a suspected nuclear installation at the Parchin military site 30 kilometers (20 miles) from Tehran, diplomats said.
According to analysts, Tehran has a fleet of ballistic missiles under development, the most capable of which has a range long enough to reach US bases in the Middle East and targets in Israel, fired from deep within Iran.
Western envoys hope the new IAEA report will help convince other countries to pile more pressure on the Islamic republic, which has been hit with four rounds of sanctions by the UN Security Council.
But Russia and China are unconvinced on the need for more action, diplomats say, with Moscow even going so far as to call openly on the IAEA not to release the report, saying it "may hinder the start of serious negotiations."
It is therefore unclear what resolution, if any, the IAEA's 35-nation board will adopt when it meets on November 17-18, with options including referral to the Security Council or setting Iran a new deadline.
Saber rattling
In either case, the release of the IAEA report comes at a time of growing speculation that Israel might launch a military strike in an attempt to suppress Iran's nuclear activities.
Israeli daily Haaretz reported last week that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was seeking cabinet backing for a military strike, and that the IAEA report would have a decisive influence.
"The possibility of a military attack against Iran is now closer to being applied than the application of a diplomatic option," Israeli President Shimon Peres warned on Sunday.
"I don't think that any decision has already been made, but there is an impression that Iran is getting closer to nuclear weapons," he added.
Washington, whose relations with Tehran soured further last month over an alleged plot to kill the Saudi ambassador to the United States, has said that while the focus is on a diplomatic solution, all options are still on the table.
French Foreign Minister Alain Juppe said Sunday that sanctions should be toughened and that "everything must be done" to avoid a military conflict.
Author: Gabriel Borrud (AFP, Reuters)
Editor: Ben Knight