Nuclear security summit

A total of 47 countries will send officials - including 38 heads of state - to the two-day summit starting Monday for what the White House has billed as the largest gathering of foreign leaders hosted by an American president in decades, and the first of its kind to so broadly address nuclear security.

Iran and North Korea, two nations at odds with the international community over their nuclear ambitions, have not been invited. Their cases will not be included in the general summit discussions but it is thought that President Obama will address both in bilateral meetings with foreign leaders, including China's Hu Jintao, on the sidelines of the summit.

Obama, who has identified nuclear security as the top priority of his broad zero-nuke agenda, has highlighted the emerging potential threat posed by terrorists obtaining nuclear weapons as the main topic on a full agenda. The US president is expected to use the summit to press the international community into concrete action to prevent bomb-grade nuclear material from falling into the hands of extremists.

Threat of attack "unlikely" but not impossible

Many experts consider the threat of a nuclear attack by a terrorist group as "low probability, high consequence," meaning an attack is unlikely but if one did take place it would have the potential to cause massive harm to life and property.

The likelihood that organizations like al Qaeda have the ability to build a crude fissile nuclear bomb is thought to be low as such a device is technically difficult to manufacture and requires hard-to-obtain bomb-grade uranium or plutonium.

However, a "dirty bomb," where conventional explosives are used to disperse radiation from a radioactive source, is a "high probability, low consequence act" with more potential to terrorize than cause large loss of life.

The general concern is that while the creation of a basic nuclear weapon is technologically challenging for terrorist groups, it is by no means impossible.

While there have been at least 18 recorded cases of weapons-grade nuclear material being stolen or going missing since the early 1990s, intelligence agencies have so far been unable to find any evidence that this material has made it into the hands of terrorist groups, although it is accepted knowledge that some are pursuing the materials to build a nuclear weapon and have the intent to use one.

According to documentation available from international non-governmental organizations, there are about 1,600 tons of highly enriched uranium and 500 tons of plutonium worldwide, enough to make 120,000 nuclear bombs.

Strengthening of exisiting protection and new safeguards against smuggling

The summit is also likely to address the strengthening of existing measures such as the Convention for the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism and the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material which ensure countries have adequately secured nuclear weapons and material. It is also expected to lead to the introduction of new protective safeguards and preventative measures targeting the smuggling of nuclear technology and knowledge.

After the fall of the Soviet Union, the main focus on securing nuclear material was concentrated on Russia and the former Soviet republics. In more recent years, after US assistance and funding has helped Russia better secure its nuclear sites, the focus has shifted to Central Asia and Pakistan in particular.

Pakistan's stockpile of weapons-grade material is heavily guarded but the country faces huge internal security threats from the Taliban and al Qaeda and has been at the center of world's biggest nuclear proliferation scandal since Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan was revealed to have sold nuclear secrets to rogue states.

It is unlikely that the Washington summit will single out any one particular state for condemnation

Success of summit and Obama's mission hinges on global pledges

The summit follows the signing of a historic agreement between the United States and Russia to further reduce their nuclear stockpiles and the Washington conference is seen as the next step in Obama's push to reduce the nuclear threat.

The success of the summit and Obama's continued quest will depend on the willingness of those in attendance to agree to a number of pledges includes in the draft communiqué.

The US is looking for pledges on tougher prosecution of traffickers, improvements in accounting for weapons-grade nuclear material and better protection of vulnerable stocks.

The communiqué is also expected to urge nations to convert nuclear reactors using highly enriched fuel into reactors using low-enriched fuel, which is harder to adapt to produce nuclear weapons. It will also call for agreement on the strengthening of the role of the International Atomic Energy Agency in enforcing nuclear treaties.

Individually, attending countries are expected to make announcements about their own specific steps to secure vulnerable material and reduce the risk of nuclear terrorism within their own borders.

The emphasis on the nuclear threat will be increased further in May with a UN-hosted gathering to review the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, which allows signatories to use nuclear energy but prohibits non-nuclear weapons powers from pursuing weapons.

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge