Opinion: Iran

Six months after the country's controversial presidential election, protests in Iran have yet to let up. In fact, they've been increasing in intensity. The most recent clashes in Tehran and other parts of the country were the most intense in months, and the Iranian government no longer denies the fact that in the latest round of demonstrations, protesters were shot. The victims included the 41-year-old nephew of opposition leader and former presidential candidate Mir-Hossein Mousavi.

The extent of property damage and the number of protesters who were injured or taken into custody is difficult to pin down. Strict censoring measures in place in Iran hinder the flow of information, but scenes of destroyed and burned-out cars, motorcycles and stores shown on Iranian state television after the protests are signs that the conflict in Iran has become increasingly violent.

But that doesn't mean that the escalation is necessarily going to continue until it leads to an explosion. Rather, it is repeatedly external circumstances that encourage the protest movement to take to the streets again, which in turn leads authorities to react drastically.

The current provocation was without a doubt Ashura, a Shiite holy day marking the violent death of Hussein, the grandson of the prophet Mohammad. The raw emotions on display during Shiite's highest day of mourning mingled this time with thoughts of the recently deceased Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, one of the architects of the Islamic revolution who become one of the spiritual supporters of the protests in 2009.

The religious-traditional core of the protest movement defines itself as the rightful heir of these two figures and gathers strength from them to launch new demonstrations. Some demonstrators take things further and call for the abolishment of the Islamic Republic altogether, while others are possibly in the service of foreign powers whose goal is to destabilize the regime in Tehran.

The latter, if they do exist, are certainly in the minority, and the Iranian authorities know that as well. Although drastic measures have been taken, such as the arrest and trial of protesters, the government is so far avoiding a major confrontation. They have not detained the figurehead of the movement, Mousavi, and they are clearly reluctant to allow a fissure in the population to develop.

One of the main reasons for this approach is the fact that the authorities in Tehran have, of course, known for some time that the dissatisfaction extends to the broader population and is not restricted to the protesters. But apparently they don't know how they can gain control of the situation. Every new clash poisons the atmosphere further - and it is perhaps already too late to heed the advice of parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani who says the grievances of the protesters need to be discussed.

But it will be people like Larijani - themselves members of the political and religious establishment - who could help put Iran back on track. Larijani is known for his aversion toward President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and people like him could take it upon themselves to correct the misguided development of the Islamic Republic and rescue the 30-year-old system. But they shouldn't wait much longer: the wheels are in motion, and the situation could soon spin out of control.

Peter Philipp is Deutsche Welle's Middle East expert (mz)

Editor: Susan Houlton