No Sequel Expected

Relations between Russia and the West are getting worse -- both in terms of rhetoric and actions -- especially since the list of controversial issues seems to get longer every day: the planned US defense missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic; the UN resolution on Kosovo; actual, alleged or planned Russian arms deliveries to Syria, Iran or Venezuela; the Iranian nuclear program; Estonia's attitude towards Soviet memorials; the investigation of the murder of former intelligence agent and emigrant Alexander Litvinenko; and finally Russia's decision to pull out of the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE) treaty.

In principle, differences of opinion and interests between states are nothing unusual in international politics, and luckily they don't lead to war most of the time. When Russia, the US and European states are feuding to such an extent, it immediately reminds people of the 40-year Cold War that took place in the second half of the last century.

Putin's decision to pull out of the CFE treaty could be considered final proof for this since the 1990 agreement is seen as a symbol of the end of the East-West conflict.

Despite this, there won't be a new version of the Cold War -- first and foremost because today's Russia, even as the important global energy supplier that it is, is far from having the political and economic power of a Soviet Union.

What's decisive is that the philosophical and ideological undertone is missing in the current dispute between Russia and the West. In the confrontation between world communism and liberal democracy, Soviet leaders -- from a Marxist-Leninist viewpoint -- saw themselves on the side of history that would end in the victory of the international proletariat in the communist world revolution. Even if people can only laugh about this today, they shouldn't underestimate this decisive motive for the East-West conflict, as Cold War historians have shown in recent years. It was this opposition of systems that created the impression of a lasting confrontation that engulfed all aspects of life.

Neither a functioning liberal democracy nor a market economy governed by rule of law have developed in Russia. But the current Russian system is not based on a carefully devised counter-ideology to western democracy. Quite to the contrary: President Putin is personally insulted when people don't see him as a clear-cut democrat or refuse to treat Russia on a par with G8 democracies, which are considered the club of global capitalism by many.

The lacking ideological component in the current dispute between Russia and the West has yet another consequence: Russia has more trouble finding allies in the world as it no longer possesses the global power of attraction of a different political and economical system. Anti-colonial liberation movements in developing countries or anti-American regimes no longer see their own future in the Russian role model. That's why Moscow has lost the opportunity to turn its own disputes with the US and Europe into a global confrontation in the sense of the historic Cold War.

In the wake of Russia's post-Soviet weakness, President Putin now thinks the time has come for a new all-encompassing arrangement with the US and Europe. He is aiming for agreements that are more in line with his own interests of a newly strengthened Great Power Russia. This makes Russia's foreign policy appear aggressive, especially since it is presented in a brusque way.

It's necessary to be prepared for a new and not completely harmless climate of animosity in relations between Russia and the West -- at least to the US and a few important European NATO states. But there won't be a return to a bipolar world of two different societal systems as in the old East-West conflict.

Ingo Mannteufel heads DW-WORLD.DE's Russian service (win)