What's behind armed insurgency in Pakistan's Balochistan?

The Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) claimed responsibility for a series of deadly attacks in Pakistan's southwestern Balochistan province on Monday, resulting in at least 70 deaths, including 14 soldiers. The coordinated assaults targeted police stations, railway lines and highways.

In the deadliest incident, BLA militants took control of a highway and shot dead at least 23 people, mostly laborers from the neighboring Punjab province, in what the province's chief minister described as "execution-style shootings." 

Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said that the separatists wanted to disrupt China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) development projects that aim to expand Beijing's presence in Pakistan and across Central and South Asia in order to counter influence from the United States and India in the region.

Sharif vowed retaliation for the violence, which coincided with a visit from a top Chinese general to the Pakistani capital, Islamabad.

Beijing has heavily invested in the region through the CPEC, part of Chinese President Xi Jinping's flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) to reach markets in the Middle East, Europe, Africa and beyond.

Who are the Baloch?

The Baloch are a Sunni Muslim ethnic group who live on both sides of the Iran-Pakistan border, and also in parts of southern Afghanistan. Balochistan forms the largest part of this region, followed by the province of Sistan and Balochistan on the Iranian side.

The area, which is roughly the size of France, is sparsely populated by around 9 million Balochs who are organized into tribes rather than feeling that they belong to a state.

For decades, efforts for autonomy or independence have been met with violent suppression on both sides of the border. In Pakistan, such efforts are viewed as attempts to fragment the nation — while in Iran, the situation is further complicated by the Baloch being a Sunni Muslim minority in a predominantly Shiite country.

In Pakistan, over 10,000 Baloch have disappeared since 2011, according to Amnesty International. 

Balochistan is rich in natural resources such as gold, diamonds, silver, and copper — yet the local population remains among the poorest in Iran and Pakistan. 

What is the Balochistan Liberation Army?

The BLA is the largest Baloch militant group and has been fighting an insurgency against the Pakistani government for decades, seeking independence for Balochistan and the expulsion of China.

BLA militants have carried out attacks, particularly targeting Pakistani security forces and Beijing's CPEC project.

The ethnic Baloch, who constitute a majority in Balochistan, are angry with the Pakistani government for what they perceive as unfair exploitation of their region's resources.

The BLA and other separatist groups argue that the local population does not receive a fair share of the profits from the resources in a province where poverty is rife. They also accuse Beijing of exploiting their resources and land, and fear that the influx of Chinese investments and workers might further marginalize the Baloch people.

These accusations of exploitation have fueled the BLA's insurgency and led to increased militant activities, which have escalated over recent days, highlighting the growing discontent among the Baloch population.

Monday's attacks coincided with the 18th anniversary of the death of Nawab Akbar Bugti, a former Baloch nationalist leader.

Alarming escalation

Analysts view the latest coordinated attacks as alarming due to their unprecedented scale and intensity, raising serious concerns about the security impacts.

"These are extremely significant attacks because of their scale — in terms of number of fatalities, the geographic scope of the attacks, and the wide range of targets, both civilian and security," Michael Kugelman, a South Asia expert at the Washington-based Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, told DW. 

Kiyya Baloch, a journalist and commentator who has extensively covered Balochistan, said that Monday's attacks marked a new level of seriousness due to their meticulous planning and coordination.  

"This indicates that the use of force by the state in Balochistan in the last two decades is not effective. It is backfiring and worsening the situation," Baloch told DW. 

For nearly two decades, Baloch armed groups have engaged in a prolonged conflict against Pakistani security forces.

Attacks tarnish image of protest movements

During this time, various peaceful rights movement in Balochistan have gained mass support. They campaign for the civil, political and socioeconomic rights of the Baloch, and have galvanized massive protests across the province through rallies. 

"We fear that in countering the new wave of violence, the state will also target our peaceful movement," Hidayat ur Rehman Baloch, an activist from Gwadar, a port city in Balochistan with massive Chinese investment, told DW.

"The attack on dissent will further deteriorate the situation. The military attacks should be on the terrorists who are operating in the organized attacks and spreading violence," he added.

Analysts fear that peaceful activists will bear the brunt of these attacks and any retribution from the Pakistani government.

"I fear that if Islamabad initiates a major crackdown in Balochistan, and it likely will, then peaceful activists and any peaceful government critics could get caught up in it," Kugelman underlined, adding that there's a risk of Islamabad using counterterrorism imperatives as a pretext to crack down on peaceful dissent. 

"It wouldn't be the first time this has happened, but it would add to an especially tense situation in Balochistan given both the threat of militancy and growing anti-government sentiment resulting in large public peaceful protests in recent months," Kugelman stressed.

"I think the government has been attempting to link peaceful Baloch activists with militants for quite some time now, so I understand that such attacks will definitely be used by the government," Baloch said.

Edited by: Keith Walker