War games

Relations between Pakistan and the US are something of a moveable feast. In the early '80s, the two countries worked together to covertly help anti-Soviet fighters in Afghanistan secure the withdrawal of occupying Red Army troops. But after Moscow pulled its forces out in 1988-1989, ties between Washington and Islamabad loosened.

The two remained at a distance from one another until the 9/11 attacks, when Washington realized that Pakistan could be useful, particularly as a supply route, in the fight against al Qaeda and the Taliban.

Pakistan, which had good relations with the Taliban regime and has its own economic interests in the neighboring country, agreed somewhat half-heartedly to the new partnership.

Keeping a back-door open

Conrad Schetter, a South Asia expert at the University of Bonn, told Deutsche Welle that Islamabad is not prepared to take a hard-line against the Taliban because it wants an Afghan government which is "in keeping with its own interests."

Those interests include an open door into Afghanistan through which Pakistani troops could retreat in the event that the unresolved border dispute with India should lead to a fourth war with Pakistan.

Pakistani journalist and terrorism expert Rahimullah Yusufzai says that against the backdrop of a possible conflict, Islamabad has adopted a strategy of closely cooperating with fundamentalist forces.

"Pakistan assumes that fundamentalists are automatically opposed to India because it doesn't have a Muslim majority," he explained.

In short, Islamabad wants Afghanistan on its side in the event of a war with India. And the Taliban, with its aim to create a theocracy, would therefore not be out of place in Pakistan's vision of the region.

Willful ignorance?

But Yusufzai says it is a stance that the West either doesn't understand - or doesn't want to understand.

"The difference of opinion between Pakistan, the US, and the rest of the West is locked into its policies toward the Taliban. Pakistan is looking for a political solution and wants to negotiate with the Taliban, and Pakistan wants to play a decisive role in the negotiations. But the US still wants to conquer the Taliban."

However, the US government is now talking in terms of negotiations - but only on condition that the Taliban break away from al Qaeda. Washington's strategy to push the Taliban toward the negotiating table includes massive drone attacks on extremist areas in Pakistan, the message being that the US will not tolerate cooperation between Islamabad and the terrorists.

Jochen Hippler, political scientist at the University of Duisburg-Essen, says some members of parliament in Islamabad have now understood that message.

Playing a dangerous game

"A lot of the violence in Pakistan in recent years has been as a result of the Afghanistan war, but in the long term an unstable Afghanistan is more of a disadvantage than an advantage for Pakistan."

Yet given the strength of the country's army and influence of its secret service, experts doubt that the Pakistani government can perform a 180-degree political turn.

On the other hand, the country doesn't want to sacrifice the billions of dollars that Washington pushes its way every year. So the government in Islamabad is engaged in a dangerous and duplicitous game of simultaneously maintaining favor with its fundamentalist allies and Washington.

The US is no longer willing to tolerate such game playing, says Henning Riecke, US expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). But he acknowledges that patience is really the only way forward.

"The Americans are trying to put greater pressure on Pakistan, but they know if the pressure becomes too great and the weak government in Islamabad loses its footing, it will do far more damage," Riecke said. "Then Islamists might take power, which America obviously does not want."

So however different the interests of Washington and Islamabad in their respective fights against the Taliban and al Qaeda, they remain dependent upon the difficult partnership that holds them together.

Author: Ratbil Shamel / tkw
Editor: Jennifer Abramsohn