Poland election: Both main challengers claim 'victory'

Exit polls suggest Poland's opposition parties could end eight years of rule by the populist Law and Justice (PiS) party by winning a parliamentary majority in Sunday's election.

Former prime minister-turned leading EU official, and now Polish political comeback kid, Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition could win 163 seats in the 460-seat parliament and two smaller groups, Third Way and Left, were set for 55 and 30 seats respectively, according to the exit poll.

Even though Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki's nationalist conservative PiS won the most votes, it was only enough to give them 200 seats. The party's potential coalition partner the far-right Confederation, was given only 12 seats by the Ipsos exit poll.

That is too few for a governing majority.

"I have never been so happy about second place. Poland has won, democracy has won, this is the end of the PiS government," Tusk said.

Poland's national electoral commission said the turnout in general elections appears to be the highest since the fall of communism in 1989. The exit poll put the turnout at 72.9%.

The head of the national election commission, Sylwester Marciniak, told reporters at a news conference that the "turnout is probably the highest in the history of the third Republic." 

Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said his ruling nationalists Law and Justice (PiS) won the parliamentary election.

"We won. Law and Justice (PiS) is the winner of the 2023 parliamentary election," he said on social media.

However, Morawiecki did not specify that he thought his party could form a government. He might have been referring only to PiS clearly being the largest party. 

PiS' leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, told supporters at party HQ that while almost 37% of the vote was a great success, it might not suffice to hold power. 

"The question before us is whether this success will be able to be turned into another term of office of our government, and we don't know that yet," Kaczynski said.

"But we must have hope and we must also know that regardless of whether we are in power or in the opposition, we will implement this project in different ways," he said.

At roughly the same time, at the Civic Coalition headquarters, opposition leader Donald Tusk said three opposition parties had enough votes to win the general election.

"Democracy has won... This is the end of the PiS government," he said.

Three opposition parties, Civic Coalition, Third Way and the New Left, ran on separate tickets but with comparable promises of seeking to oust Law and Justice and restore good ties with the EU.

It's not clear all three parties are willing to ally. Exit polls do suggest it's likely they would have a small majority if they did — but even those figures are still subject to change. 

Votes were still being counted and the state electoral commission says it expects to have final results by Tuesday morning.

It's 9 p.m. in Poland, meaning polls are closing and exit polls are out. 

The picture is not yet clear, to put it mildly. 

The ruling PiS party is set to emerge as the largest, unsurprisingly, but its projected 36.8% of the vote and roughly 200 seats is far short of what's needed to form a government by itself. 

PiS' leader, Jaroslaw Kaczynski, said on seeing the exit polls that it was not yet clear if his party could claim a third term or not. 

The leader of the largest opposition group, Donald Tusk, said he believed his party and its allies had enough votes to form a government in PiS's place.

"I am the happiest man on earth," Tusk said. "Democracy has won. Poland has won." 

Tusk's Civic Coalition (KO in Polish initials in the graphic above) is a fairly distant second on 31.6% support, but it might have an easier time striking alliances with the centrist Third Way alliance, projected to win around 13%. The socialist New Left group was polling at 8.6%.

Combining these three groups, which all campaigned on a platform of ousting PiS and fostering closer EU ties, would as it stands give them a parliamentary majority. Exit polls put all three combined on a projected 248 seats, with 231 needed for a majority. 

But even small changes as the votes are counted could potentially alter what's looking like a complex calculus at present. 

A number of people were evacuated from at least three polling stations over bomb threats on Sunday, Reuters news agency reported quoting a police spokesperson.

"About 200 people were evacuated from three polling stations, bomb disposal experts were  called and the incident is ongoing," police spokesperson Sylwester Marczak said.

The press office of Poland's electoral commission said it did not have any information regarding whether the incident would have an impact on the voting processes, for instance with some polling booths potentially staying open later.

If all's on schedule, voting should wrap up in all or most of the country about an hour from now, with first exit polls coming soon after that. 

Based on polling before the vote, here are the main trends you should be watching for. 

PiS is likely to remain the largest party, but unless it outperforms expectations, it's also likely to lose its outright majority in parliament.

The magic number is 231 seats, of the 460 in total, and PiS only just cleared the hurdle in 2019 with 235. Unless they can secure 231 this evening, some kind of change in Poland's leadership — most likely PiS having to seek a coalition partner or partners — will follow. 

The main opposition alliance, the Civic Coalition, is not necessarily in line to make gains on its 2019 performance and doesn't appear able to mount a serious challenge to PiS, unless voters have a change of heart on polling day. 

Then the smaller party to keep a close eye on is called Confederation. It is to the right of the already conservative and Catholic PiS, and in terms of domestic politics, it's probably PiS' most natural coalition ally candidate. 

However, Confederation has run on a platform highly skeptical and critical of the government in Warsaw's support for Ukraine since Russia's invasion, which could make an alliance complex, also for Kyiv. Confederation is expected to win only around 1 vote in 10, but just a small number of seats might suffice to help PiS past the decisive 231 marker.

Socialist party The Left and another coalition, called Third Way, are also both likely to score support more or less comparable to that of Confederation.

It is however worth noting that different polls' results varied quite markedly in the run-up to voting. Two of the latest, published on the same day, disagreed by more than 5% of the vote when it came to PiS' likely share of support, just to take one example.

So the exit polls will probably be a more reliable indicator later on.

Barbara Goden, a pensioner who's supporting the ruling Law and Justice Party, told DW she was happy with that they have done for elderly Poles.

"I hope our situation will improve because we are already better off than before. As pensioners, we receive two extra payments a year. Some medicine is free. This is a big plus for us."

Therefore, she would like to see the current government re-elected.

"I hope it will continue the way it has been. So pensioners don't need to choose between spending their pennies either on bread or on medicine. Just so we can age with dignity."

Dr. Iwona Hawrukiewicz, who spoke to DW at a polling station in Warsaw, was critical of the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS).

"We have had eight years of negative experiences," she said. "The current government is trying to take Poland out of the EU, it is unable to adapt to the rest of Europe."

She adds she fears for the future of young people in Poland, saying:

"Young people will have a hard life. The government has ruined the economy. From the beginning to the end, this government has shown they are unable to manage economic challenges."

PiS is seeking a third term in power, and is considered likely to emerge as the largest party. But it is also likely to lose ground compared to its performance in 2019, when it claimed an outright, if narrow, majority in parliament.

Five hours into the election, at midday local time, Poland's National Electoral Commission said that voter turnout was almost 23%.

This is higher than the turnout at the same stage in the last parliamentary election in 2019, which was 18%.

Monika, a young mother who only wants to be identified by her first name, told DW: "I hope this time more Poles will cast their vote than in the past. So that there is a change."

The total turnout in 2019 was 61.7%; this was already a major bump on previous parliamentary elections in Poland, where turnout was nearer 50%. 

Voters have given a mixed reaction to the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party's first two terms in office as they cast their ballots on Sunday.

"It's time for a change," Ewa Bankowska, a 43-year-old working in finance, told AFP news agency as she voted in Halinow, a town just outside the capital Warsaw.

"I'm concerned about the economy. I would like us to develop and for the government to stop spending money it does not have," she said.

But Dorota Zbig, a 57-year-old nurse, told AFP the last few years of PiS government "have been very good for me and my family and I hope everyone including young people votes reasonably."

Tomasz Druzynski, an information technology specialist, voted in Warsaw, saying he believes change is possible.

"I believe in it and I think this is the first chance in eight years to change something. And I hope this change will come," Druzynski told the AP news agency.

Jan Molak, an 80-year-old supporter of the ruling party, credited it with creating a more just economic system and the development boom of recent years.

"Things are getting better and better," he told AP after voting in Warsaw.

Retired nurse Barbara Burs, 63, voted early in Warsaw, telling AP she cast her vote to change the government because she wants a better country for her children and grandchildren in a "just and undivided Poland."
 

As well as the parliamentary vote, the government has ordered a referendum on migration, the retirement age, whether to sell off state assets and whether to keep a new wall on the border with Belarus 

The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party has vowed to continue its anti-migration policy and to oppose new European Union plans regarding the sharing of migrants and asylum seekers across all EU states.

Brussels has proposed a quota system between member states for relocating irregular migrants, who have been reaching Europe in increasing numbers.

More than 50% of eligible voters need to take part to make the referendum legally binding.

The opposition says the referendum is an effort to mobilize the ruling party's electorate and has called on Poles to boycott the vote.

Here's a look at the key political parties in Sunday's vote:

Law and Justice (PiS)

The national-conservative PiS, which has ruled Poland for the past eight years, has faced accusations at home and abroad of undermining democratic rules and reshaping the country according to its deeply conservative values.

But its welfare programs and minimum wage hikes have proven popular, raising living standards for millions of Poles and helping PiS build broader national support.

PiS has pledged further social spending increases and also plans to boost standing army personnel to 300,000 soldiers.

It promises to continue supporting Ukraine in the war against Russia but not at the expense of Poland's own interest.

It seeks greater independence within the EU, opposes the EU Pact on Migration and Asylum, and vows to tackle illegal migration, especially from the Middle East and Africa.

Civic Coalition (KO)

The main opposition Civic Coalition, comprising the liberal Civic Platform, Greens, Modern and Polish Initiative, pledges to dismantle PiS's judicial reforms with the aim of freeing up billions of euros in EU recovery funds.

It also promises an overall improvement in Poland's strained ties with the EU.

KO says it will guarantee media freedoms and loosen abortion law after a near-total ban since 2021 on terminations.

Former European Council President and ex-Prime Minister Donald Tusk is head of the Civic Coalition.

The Third Way

The alliance of Poland 2050 and the Polish Peasant's Party (PSL) presents itself as an alternative in the contest between PiS and KO.

The center-right coalition's campaign agenda focuses on simplifying the tax system, measures to help small businesses, and increasing education spending.

The alliance needs to garner at least 8% of votes to enter parliament, which is key to the opposition getting any chance to form a government.

The New Left

The New Left, currently polling at around 10%, is a possible third coalition partner for the KO and Third Way.

It wants to focus on labor law reforms, empowering trade unions and gradually introducing a 35-hour working week and 35 days of statutory vacation.

The party vows to fight for women's rights, liberalize abortion laws and promote LGBT rights, including by allowing same-sex marriages.

Confederation

The far-right Confederation criticises what it says is the government's subservient attitude to Ukraine. It opposes social benefits for Ukrainian refugees and wants Poland to prioritize its own military over providing arms to Kyiv.

It also wants to abolish 15 taxes, continue coal mining and combat illegal migration.

Polling stations opened Sunday in Poland's parliamentary election, described by the main opposition leader — former EU chief Donald Tusk — as the "most important" since the fall of communism in 1989.

Opinion polls indicate the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party will get the most votes but may struggle to build a governing coalition, giving a chance to the opposition led by Tusk.

The most likely coalition partner for PiS would be Confederation, a far-right party that has called for an end to Poland's large-scale assistance for Ukraine and is strongly anti-migrant.

If it wins, the ruling Law and Justice (PiS) partyhas vowed to press ahead with controversial reforms of the judiciary which it says are aimed at rooting out corruption.  The EU, however, views the judicial reforms as undermining democracy.

Polls will stay open until 9 p.m. local time (1900 GMT/UTC), with exit polls expected immediately after and final results on Monday.

Some 29 million people are eligible to vote, including half a million registered abroad in a large diaspora.

mm/wd (AP, AFP, Reuters, dpa)