Obama trip

Patryk Pawlak is a research fellow at the European Union Institute for Security Studies in Paris where he works on EU-US relations and US foreign policy.

It's no mystery that relations between Warsaw and Washington have become ever-more pragmatic over the past few years. The current Polish government - corresponding with public sentiment - has been advancing a more dynamic role for itself in Europe.

And Mr. Obama's visit comes at a time where Polish positivity toward the US is rather questionable; it has been steadily declining since 1993. The perception of Mr. Obama himself is changing too.

The Polish Public Opinion Research Center named him as foreign politician of the year in 2009. But after just one year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel knocked him off the top spot. Even more curious is that he now fares worse than George W. Bush who held that position from 2002-2005. Even with his lowest score Mr. Bush was still top of the opinion polls.

Poland and the EU

These results suggest that Poles have found their place within the EU (they are one of the staunchest supporters of European integration) and are no longer willing to sell themselves short in exchange for American assurances. Fear of Russian or German invasion is shared only by a very limited group of people.

The role of the US as the guarantor of security - albeit still significant - is diminishing. Add to this the public criticism of the Afghanistan campaign (where Poland has soldiers deployed), the financial crisis and debates about the diminishing role of the US in the world, and the picture becomes clearer about how the Poles really see the US.

Internal politics

With parliamentary elections looming, the current Polish government is under greater pressure to get more out of the Polish-American relationship. So expect a lot of pomp at Mr. Obama's visit.

But the US President is himself soon to be running a reelection campaign; his visit to Poland and any declarations he may well make should be interpreted in exactly that context. Although it has not been officially confirmed, Mr. Obama is set to meet the families of the passengers who died in the plane crash in Smolensk last year - most notably with Jaroslaw Kaczynski.

It also happens that he is the favored candidate of the Polish community in the US - potential voters in the 2012 US presidential elections. In Chicago, Mr. Obama's stronghold, Mr. Kaczynski received five times as many votes as the incumbent president in the Polish presidential elections of 2010.

As leader of the Law and Justice Party, Mr. Kaczynski is the Prime Minister's main opponent and a major critic of the current government's foreign policy. He considers it too weak and too EU-focused. Mr. Kaczynski sees it as weakening Poland's international standing and exposing it to security threats, particularly from Russia. Both will likely find this meeting politically beneficial.

A future-oriented agenda

But the Poles are hungry for success in the world. This makes Mr. Obama's task all the more thorny; Poles no longer see themselves as living in a post-communist state in need of guidance, but rather, as living in a modern nation geared toward progress and improving quality of life.

So Mr. Obama will find these expectations hard to meet. The Americans will need to match their words with deeds, as in these times, every ally counts. Diplomatic assurances of friendship are no longer enough.

But the issues on the agenda for Mr. Obama's visit seem to suggest exactly that: trade, technology, innovation and new sources of energy.

Lucrative investments

In April this year, the US Energy Information Administration reported that Poland has 5.3 billion cubic meters of shale gas for potential exploitation - the highest amount of any European country where the study took place. This makes Poland an attractive investment opportunity.

Talks about America's experience with shale gas will likely feature prominently. And there will indeed be much discussion about a more permanent presence of American F-16 fighter jets in Poland - the first time the US military would be stationed on Polish territory.

Visas are no longer the foremost issue for Polish officials, and rightly so. The issues of both visas and US military presence in Poland are matters more of prestige - matters that can be converted into electoral gains rather than symbols of significant advances in cooperation.

Poland should insist on a more pragmatic US approach to transatlantic mobility. For instance, it should insist on faster screening of low-risk travellers. EU-US cooperation in crisis management brings another intriguing subject forward, especially as events unfold in Libya.

‘Warsaw' speech

Mr. Obama should use this opportunity to outline his vision of the EU's global role, particularly as Europe faces wholesale changes in its southern neighbourhood. A ‘Warsaw speech' on the EU's leadership in democratisation and transformation - both to the East and to the South - would be decidedly welcome.

Poland has always seen its relations with the Unites States as a litmus test for the success or failure of Polish foreign policy and its strength in the world. This is a particularly denigrating approach. And Polish politicians championing Mr. Obama's visit as an indicator of Poland's might is even more so.

With the Polish Presidency of the EU approaching, the visit should be used by Poland to demonstrate its strength as an international actor regardless of the attention it is paid by the US. Poland should avoid looking within its borders and continue asserting itself as a strong regional and European leader.

Editor: Michael Knigge