Erdogan has interests in Syria's reignited war

News that the civil war in Syria had flared up again came as no surprise to people in Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his right-wing nationalist coalition partner Devlet Bahceli have talked about little else than the shift in power in the Middle East and what the possible negative consequences of that could be for Turkey for over two months now.

The suggestion has been that regional changes could be advantageous to Kurds in Syria who have controlled northeastern Rojava — also known as the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria (AANES) — since the civil war began in 2011, a fact that has been a constant thorn in Ankara's side.

The Turkish government is also concerned about another development in the region: Syrian President Bashar Assad's allies Hezbollah and Iran have been weakened after a year of attacks on Israel; and Assad's protector Russia is increasingly invested in its invasion of Ukraine. Russia still maintains military bases in Syria but Istanbul-based security expert Burak Yildirim says Moscow only has 13 fighter jets stationed there now, seven of which are operable, after having 50 there before its war of aggression against Kyiv.

Add to that the fact that the US has said it wants to reposition itself in the region, too. Though it remains unclear what that may look like under incoming President Donald Trump. Questions include whether he will withdraw US soldiers from Syria and Iraq, and what impact that might have.

A 'window of opportunity' for Syrian rebels

Syrian rebels recognized the situation as a window of opportunity, starting a major offensive against Assad and his troops on November 27. The operation has been a success and saw them take Syria's second-largest city, Aleppo, in a matter of days. Now they are expanding the campaign into other nearby cities. The operation is being led by the Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a regional group formerly allied with Al-Qaeda. The US designated HTS a terrorist organization in 2018.

Observers say Ankara was very likely informed of the operation before it commenced. Without Ankara's acquiesence or potentially its support, there is no way HTS would stand a chance against Assad, explained Middle East expert Michael Lüders in an interview with the German public news channel Deutschlandfunk: "Not only is there no doubt that Ankara knew about the offensive, it is also giving military assistance. Naturally, the rebels need adequate weaponry. Looking at the geographic situation, they can only be getting them from Turkey."

The northwestern Idlib region from where the offensive began is in essence hermetically sealed.

Ankara's aim is to topple the Kurds

When Syria's civil war began, Ankara sided with the rebels, breaking off all diplomatic relations with Damascus. More recently, President Erdogan has attempted to revive diplomatic ties but Assad rejected the overture, saying normalization was out of the question until Turkish troops are withdrawn from northern Syria.

But Turkey is not wiling to withdraw its troops from what it calls a "security zone" in northern Syria, which Turkey controls with the help of the Syrian National Army (SNA), an Islamist militia supported by Ankara.

Turkey's ultimate goal is to topple the Kurdish Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, where the Democratic Union Party (PYD), an offshoot of the banned Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), is in conrol.

At the moment, the two most powerful groups operating in the region are HTS and the SNA. The latter, according to Turkish Middle East expert Erhan Kelesoglu, immediately started an offensive against the Kurds as soon as Aleppo fell.

Ankara denies any involvement in Syria, with Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan saying Turkey would never support activities that could spark another flood of refugees. Turkey has taken in some 3.5 million Syrian refugees since the war began but the mood has begun to sour as a result of Turkey's grave economic crisis. Migration played an outsized role in Turkey's recent municipal and parliamentary elections, putting President Erdogan under pressure to act. Erdogan has made clear that he would like to send most of those refugees back to Syria. They would be relocated into the buffer zone in northern Syria. Erdogan recently repeated his intention to maintain control of the 30-40 kilometer (19-25 mile) strip.

How much control does Ankara have over the SNA?

But would Erdogan be willing to cooperate with jihadis to do so? According to Burak Yildirim, that is exactly what the Turkish-backed SNA is. Control of the group he says, is in the hands of rebels acting on directions from Ankara.

"For the most part, operations are running according to Turkey's plans," he said, noting that there is currently no infighting among the insurgents. "HTS and the SNA both want to see Assad's downfall," said Yildirim, adding that they could divide the region amongst themselves.

Since the weekend, the Turkish-allied Islamists have also reported success fighting the Kurds. The SNA, for instance, claimed to have taken control of the area around Tell Rifaat and they are planning attacks on other Kurdish cities soon.

Yet even though the Turkish government is lending military support for the current offensive, it is attempting to avoid a direct conflict with Russia, Iran and the Assad regime, explained Middle East expert Kelesoglu. But first, he said, Ankara will wait and see how far its allies can push back the Kurds and how much of their territory they can seize.

The Turkish army started major military operations in the region in 2016, and has been bombarding Kurdish-controlled areas there ever since. Turkish soldiers are currently stationed in Jarabulus, al-Bab, A'zaz, Tell Abyad and the rebel stronghold Idlib.

Organizations like the NGO Human Rights Watch (HRW) say Ankara is committing war crimes in its campaign. In a report released in March, HRW claimed that Ankara was responsible for kidnappings, plundering, torture and sexual violence. Turkey, it said, was culpable for heavy attacks and possible war crimes, committed both by their own troops as well as armed local groups operating in Turkish-occupied areas of northern Syria.

This article was translated from German by Jon Shelton