Hope for climate but too little progress on renewables

As countries negotiate a deal on transitioning away from fossil fuels and rapidly cutting emissions at critical UN climate talks in Dubai, a new analysis paints a mixed picture when it comes to renewable energy alternatives.

Nearly all major economies have wind, solar or hydropower in their energy mixes and renewables are booming, the annual Climate Change Performance Index (CCPI)found. Still their expansion is too slow to replace oil, coal and gas and avert the worsening impacts of climate change.

Some 450 experts evaluated 63 of the world's biggest economies responsible for 90% of emissions, including China, the EU and the US, and found none are doing enough to stop the carbon emissions caused by burning fossil fuels.

"We are now entering a crucial phase. Global emissions must be nearly halved by 2030 to avoid an escalation of the climate crisis," said report co-author Niklas Höhne from German think tank the New Climate Institute.

"The decisive contribution" has to come from the 63 countries evaluated in the index, added Höhne. 

The authors hope decisions made at the UN climate conference will mean a renewed drive to rapidly cut emissions and implement more ambitious climate policies, which they say have stagnated in the past year.

"A binding decision to triple renewable energy capacity, double energy efficiency and drastically reduce the use of coal, oil and gas until 2030 could pave the way for a path aligned with the Paris climate targets," said CCPI author Jan Burck from Bonn-based environment NGO Germanwatch.

Denmark, Estonia, Philippines — rapid expansion of renewables

The report evaluated states' greenhouse gas emissions, energy consumption, the share of renewables in the energy mix, and energy policies. Like last year, no country ranked in the top three because none are aligned with the 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 Fahrenheit) warming limit agreed in Paris in 2015.

Denmark again led the pack, ranking fourth because of consistent growth in renewable energy for electricity and heating and resulting low CO2 emissions. But the report warned that climate action has stalled since elections a year ago.

"This threatens the national emission reduction targets for 2025 and 2030," said Höhne.

Estonia is now placed fifth in the index having adopted a target of 100% renewables by 2030. It has already surpassed its previous 40% goal. The Philippines climbed to sixth place, because of its low GHG emissions and energy use.

The analysis also noted a lot of potential for expanding wind and solar power in Croatia, Malaysia, the Netherlands, China, Turkey, Vietnam, Bulgaria, and Indonesia.

However, many of these countries still burn large amounts of coal, oil, and gas, and received only a "moderate" or "good" overall rating in the renewable energy category, missing out on a "very good" rating.

'Good' overall ratings for India and the EU

India, Morocco, Chile and the EU all received an overall "good rating."

India, for instance, came in seventh mainly because of its low per person emissions and energy use. Still, the country remains dependent on coal despite some green energy expansion.

"India's renewable targets for 2030 remain too low," said Höhne.

Germany climbed two places to 14 in the overall standings.

While the country improved considerably when it comes to 2030 green energy targets, the authors said divisions in the country's coalition government had led to a watering down of climate and heating legislation. Germanwatch's Jan Burck also criticized Germany's weak transport policy, as an area where "very little is happening."

Brazil sees big improvements, UK continues to slip down the table

Brazil is one of the biggest climbers this year, moving up 15 spots to 23rd place. The country had slipped down the rankings previously after years of inaction during climate-skeptic Jair Bolsonaro's term. But new president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva is pursuing a "more progressive climate policy," promising to curb Amazon deforestation.

Still, country experts say Brazil is expanding fossil fuels and could miss climate targets, with Burck adding Brazil needs to accelerate a fossil fuel phaseout as a member of the G20, which accounts for 80% of global GHG emissions.

Once one of the top-ranked countries in the CCPI, the UK has slipped further down the table, with the government approving a new coal mine and granting "hundreds of new oil and gas licenses in the North Sea," said report author Thea Uhlich of Germanwatch. Italy also dropped 15 places, while Poland is the worst performing EU country.

The USA and China perform poorly overall and in the energy consumption and emissions categories. But China is in the top group when it comes to renewables.

The index authors also highlighted new investments in renewables and energy efficiency through the US Inflation Reduction Act as a positive. They said, however that a potential reelection of Donald Trump next year "raises fears" considering his administration's "disastrous climate policy record."

Oil states bottom of the pile

Host of this year's COP28 climate conference, the United Arab Emirates (UAE)came in third from the bottom. The petrostate has high per-capita emissions and a less than 1% share of renewables in its energy supply, which were among the reasons for its low ranking.

Overall, fossil fuel-producing nations performed poorly, with fellow Gulf State Saudi Arabia placing last. Iran, Russia, Canada and the USA languish at the bottom of the index, as do Japan, Australia South Korea.

"The CCPI shows once again that the biggest fossil fuel producers and exporters fair the worst," said Janet Milongo, of NGO Climate Action Network International, which is also behind the index. "All states should be focusing all their efforts and finance towards scaling up to 100% renewable energy systems in a just, equitable and rapid manner."

This article was originally written in German.