South Africa: Zuma's MK party surges amid ANC struggles

Few observers would describe the last week as being a positive one for South African President Cyril Ramaphosa.

South Africa's Electoral Court ruled on Tuesday that Ramaphosa's rival, former president Jacob Zuma, can run for office in the upcoming general election — overturning an earlier decision that had barred Zuma from the vote. 

But the electoral commission said Friday that it had appealed the ruling to the country's highest judicial authority, the Constitutional Court. 

Zuma, who used to lead the ruling African National Congress (ANC), now fronts the uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK)  — named after the ANC's former military wing.

The new opposition party has emerged as a potentially significant player on the political field since its formation in 2023. 

And, as another thorn in Ramaphosa's side, a recent poll suggested the embattled ANC may garner as little as 37% of the vote in South Africa's May 29 election.

Support rising for Zuma's MK 

The ANC has been steadily losing support for years, but figures released by the South African think tank, the Social Research Foundation, suggest that following next month's election, Zuma's MK party could have become South Africa's third-biggest political force after the main opposition Democratic Alliance.

MK could win 13% of the vote, with the Democratic Alliance scoring 25%, according to the figures.

MK's political ambitions were boosted this week when the Electoral Court, which arbitrates election-related cases, overturned an earlier decision that had barred Zuma from contesting the polls.

Why was Zuma barred from running? 

South Africa's Independent Electoral Commission ruled last month that Zuma was not eligible to run in the May election after it received an objection against his candidacy.

In 2021, Zuma was convicted and sentenced to 15 months in prison for defying a court order to appear before a judicial commission probing corruption allegations in government and state-owned companies during his presidential term from 2009 to 2018.

South Africa's constitution does not allow people who have been convicted of a crime and sentenced to more than 12 months in prison without the option of a fine to stand for elections as lawmakers.

Can Zuma become South Africa's president again?

After the Electoral Court verdict, MK spokesperson Nhlamulo Ndhlela said Zuma would appear on the ballot as the party's presidential candidate.

"We are ecstatic at the court verdict because we have always said that President Zuma and the MK Party's rights have to be upheld," Ndhlela told reporters.

"What this basically means is that he will be our presidential candidate and he will be in Parliament after the elections."

However, South Africa's electoral commission said in a statement on Friday that it had lodged an "urgent and direct" appeal to the Constitutional Court to provide "certainty."

South African political analyst Dirk Kotze said the judgment still needs to be seen in context, however.

"It does not say that, for example, he can stand as a presidential candidate. Zuma has served two terms as president. And that's absolutely clear," Kotze said. "And the constitution allows only for two terms in total, in the lifetime of a person. So, there is no way in which he can present himself as a presidential candidate."

What's Zuma's beef with the ANC?

Kotze, from the University of South Africa, said Zuma was likely to use his court victory to argue he was being politically targeted.

"That will have then implications about how he's going to present himself as a possible political victim in the past or as a victim of a political strategy," he said.

"He's going to use that very much, and that he will say, well, this judgment by the Electoral Court ultimately vindicates what he was arguing all the time about his innocence, and the fact that it might be a political strategy against him."

Zuma's years as leader of the ANC were dogged by allegations of sprawling corruption, mismanagement of organizations with links to the government and greed.

The Zondo Commission, a marathon inquiry into colossal corruption and fraud, was formed following accusations that Zuma allowed the businessmen brothers Atul, Ajay and Rajesh Gupta to influence his policies and win lucrative government contracts.

The inquiry found that Zuma had "opened the doors" to the Gupta brothers to "go into state-owned enterprises and help themselves to the money and assets of the people of South Africa," which they used to create a sprawling business empire.

This cost the country billions of dollars, and the revelations of the plundering, combined with economic stagnation, a tumbling rand currency and uncontrollable unemployment contributed to Zuma's fall from power.

Why does Zuma still enjoy support?

Zuma still enjoys considerable political clout, particularly among the country's more than 10 million Zulus, mainly in South Africa's KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng provinces.

The emergence of MK also threatens to hurt the ANC in the polls, because Zuma would be taking his supporters away from the ANC.

Dianne Hawker, DW's correspondent in Johannesburg, pointed out that during Zuma's presidency programs were rolled out to deal with "South Africa's HIV and AIDS pandemic, and it was under Zuma's administration that antiretroviral drugs were made available more broadly in South African society."

"There were a number of programs that helped provide water and electricity to areas that had no water or electricity," she added.

"Zuma's support is particularly strong in rural areas. When looking at those kinds of bread-and-butter issues, many of Zuma's supporters believe he had a very good presidency because they can see in their lived existence the benefits of his presidency."

In the 2019 election, the ANC won 57.5% of the vote, its lowest since taking power in 1994.

A result below 50% in May's election would likely force the ANC to enter into a coalition with smaller parties, for the first time, to govern the country.

Okeri Ngutjinazo and Dianne Hawker contributed to this report.

Edited by: Keith Walker