South Korea: What's next after Yoon's martial law fiasco?

The chaos that roiled South Korean politics overnight has continued into Wednesday after President Yoon Suk Yeol declared martial law late on Tuesday, only to rescind the decision six hours later after lawmakers rejected the declaration.

Scenes of armed soldiers on the steps of the assembly and surrounding the parliament shocked the nation and resurrected memories of the military dictatorships that ruled from the mid-1960s until the late 1980s — often with an iron fist that was regularly used against dissenters.

In the aftermath, the main opposition party filed a motion of impeachment against Yoon on Wednesday morning. 

Yoon was already in the Democratic Party's crosshairs after a politically testing year that saw his approval rating tumble to just 19% earlier this week.

The opposition, which holds a majority in the national assembly, is looking to make political capital out of Yoon's sudden declaration of martial law in a live televised address to the nation a little before 10:30 p.m. local time.

Yoon takes aim at the Democratic opposition

Although the conservative Yoon may have had legitimate grievances against the Democratic Party for using its parliamentary majority to push through legislation, analysts say the president mistimed his attack, an error that has made him more vulnerable than ever.

"There has been a lot of criticism in the media and the public of the actions of the Democratic Party and it seems that Yoon misunderstood that as greater support for him than he actually had," said Kim Sang-woo, a former politician with the left-leaning South Korean Congress for New Politics and now a member of the board of the Kim Dae-jung Peace Foundation.

"The opposition has been abusing its legislative position to force through bills that Yoon believes are contrary to the national interest, to demand legal investigations into his wife and a series of impeachment motions against senior members of his government," he told DW.

The opposition has been able to make those moves as it enjoys a majority in the chamber after emerging triumphant in mid-term elections earlier this year, leaving Yoon largely powerless half-way through his one-term administration.

Just hours before Yoon's announcement, an editorial in the Korea Times stated that the Democratic Party was "exploiting its parliamentary majority to further its agenda," accusing it of "weaponizing impeachment motions against key officials and manipulating budget deliberations to undermine Cabinet ministers, heads of state-run agencies and other key figures perceived to be at odds with the party."

Four impeachments had been scheduled for Wednesday, including one against an official investigating Moon Jae-in, the previous president and head of the opposition party.

Yoon's miscalculation

Yoon's People Power Party was also angered when the Democratic Party leveraged its majority to force cuts totaling 67.8 billion won (€45.7 million) from the defense budget.

In declaring martial law, Yoon said it was "aimed at eradicating pro-North Korean forces" from within the opposition, without providing evidence or details.

The move hearkened back to South Korea's strongmen leaders in the late 1980s, who would raise the threat of the North when seeking to control dissidents and political opponents.

More specifically, the cuts were earmarked from intelligence gathering operations critical to detecting and investigating national security threats and corruption.

Several Democratic Party politicians have been the subject of recent corruption and other investigations, including party leader Lee Jae-myung, who was in mid-November sentenced to a year in prison, suspended for two years, for violating election laws. He has appealed the sentence.

Whatever Yoon's frustrations, however, analysts say he has played his hand poorly and weakened his own position.

"Yoon's declaration of martial law appeared to be both legal overreach and a political miscalculation, unnecessarily risking South Korea's economy and security," said Leif-Eric Easley, professor of international studies at Ewha Womans University in Seoul.

"With extremely low public support and without strong backing within his own party and administration, the president should have known how difficult it would be to implement his late-night decree," he told DW.

"He sounded like a politician under siege, making a desperate move against mounting scandals, institutional obstruction and calls for impeachment, all of which are now likely to intensify."

Yoon did the right thing by rescinding the martial law declaration immediately after it was defeated in a vote in the assembly, added Easley, as this "reduced the likelihood of violence or a constitutional crisis."

South Korea faces political instability

Nevertheless, South Korea is set to face a period of instability as the standoff between the executive and legislature continues. 

"When he was elected, Yoon had 26 years of experience as a prosecutor but absolutely no political background and no idea of how to run a country," said Kim.

The opposition has called for Yoon to resign immediately, as the capital, Seoul, braces for more demonstrations. 

"People voted for him because he was not an established politician, he said he had no loyalties to political predecessors and that he was independent," he added.

"The situation is dangerous," Kim said.  "People heard the term 'martial law' and immediately traumatic images of the years under the military dictatorships came back to them. If people become too emotional, then there is danger."

Edited by: Wesley Rahn 

Written using material from the Associated Press news agency.