Can Sri Lanka's new president bring stability?

The unprecedented political and economic crisis in Sri Lanka in the past few months culminated in the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, with Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe stepping in as the acting president. Protesters demanded that a new president be elected as soon as possible, forcing parliament to assemble on July 20 to vote by secret ballot.

The three presidential candidates were Wickremesinghe, the opposition-backed Dullas Alahapperuma of Mahinda Rajapaksa's Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party and Anura Kumara Dissanayake, the leader of the leftist People's Liberation Front.

Wickremesinghe was elected as the island nation's new president after he received 134 of the 219 valid votes. Allahaperuma was the runner-up with 82 votes, leaving Anura Kumara Dissanayake with only three votes. The newly elected president will hold office for the balance of Rajapaksa's term, until November 2024.

Widely unpopular presidencies

The protest movement, or the "Aragalaya," has been challenging the legitimacy and credibility of the government led by Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe. Thousands of protesters in Sri Lanka had been demanding for months that both Rajapaksa and Wickremesinghe step down from the posts of president and prime minister.

Even as the election results were announced, protests have continued. "Ranil might have gotten the support of 134 members of parliament and become the newly elected president, but he is yet to get the support of the public," said Bhavani Fonseka, a constitutional and human rights lawyer and a senior researcher at the Center for Policy Alternatives.

"Protests are still ongoing. These protesters want Ranil to go home and they will not be pacified. He is a deeply unpopular president," she said.

Even though some believe he can take on the challenges that are facing the country, Wickremesinghe is still widely seen as being a staunch supporter of the Rajapaksas who works in their interest, rather than in the interest of the people.

"In our analysis in the last weeks in both social media and mainstream Sinhala media, there has been widespread delegitimization of Ranil Wickremesinghe, that he will not be able to uphold democracy amid public dissent," said Deepanjalie Abeywardana, who leads the Colombo-based think tank Verite Research.

"There is also criticism of him using emergency regulations and curfews. There is a general opinion that he is repressive, untrustworthy, crafty and power hogging in nature. While there are negative portrayals and delegitimization, there are favorable perceptions as well, but this does not have that much traction as the negative ones," she added.

With continuing widespread dissatisfaction among the people, more protests are likely in the coming days.

A 'self-serving' exercise

"Ranil is a person who lost the general elections and came to parliament through the national list. He does not have the mandate of the people. This is seen as a self-serving exercise as he is seen as a proxy extension of the Rajapaksas. His very presidency will exacerbate the instability in the country," said Ambika Satkunanathan, human rights advocate and former commissioner of the Human Rights Commission of Sri Lanka.

"People are demanding that elections take place. In their eyes, the parliament itself does not have any legitimacy. The public have lost trust in democratic processes. In order to reestablish trust, and end the hold over the parliament the Rajapaksas have, the only option is to go for elections. But it is doubtful that elections will happen now. It is an uphill battle against the Rajapaksas," she added.

The dysfunctional structure of Sri Lanka's parliament is also a cause for concern. The protesters are demanding that the executive powers of the president be abolished. But in the current scenario, that is unlikely to happen.

"Ranil Wickremesinghe is someone who has held high offices without winning a seat in the parliament. Patronage, nepotism and corruption are rampant. But he is uncaring of public opinion. When you are uncaring of public opinion, your decisions will not be for the people. It will be based on what serves him and his allies, the Rajapaksas," said Satkunanathan.

Doubts over success of reforms

The road ahead for Wickremesinghe is not easy, and the first task in front of him is to form a government, a cabinet and appoint a prime minister. "Political stability is extremely important to take steps towards resolving the current economic crisis in the island nation," said human rights lawyer Fonseka. "Before the elections, Ranil said that he will bring in reforms. But it remains to be seen whether he will deliver."

Many reforms are needed to deal with the economic crisis. But with a politically fragmented parliament, it is yet to be seen whether the reforms proposed by Wickremesinghe will gain support.

"Ranil might have gotten the support of 134 members of parliament in today's vote. But that does not mean that they will vote for his proposed reforms. He will have to rely on Rajapaksa's Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna party," said Fonseka.

There is also an expectation that Wickremesinghe must communicate with the people about his economic recovery plans. Sri Lanka has yet to reach an agreement with the IMF regarding a bailout. The country's political class faces daunting tasks ahead, as they will have to take steps to mitigate the economic crisis, pacify protesters and win public support. "The next few days are critical in these uncertain times," said Fonseka.

Edited by: Leah Carter

Correction, July 20, 2022: A previous version of this article misspelled the name of Bhavani Fonseka. DW apologizes for the error.