Syria: How Germany plans to help with the transition

Germany has offered to support Syria following the fall of President Bashar Assad's regime — but only if all of the country's many population groups are included, Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said this week.

Speaking with reporters in Berlin, she spoke of a "moment of hope" for the country but also expressed concern that this could be deceptive. All efforts must now be made to "ensure that Syria finds the path to a peaceful and stable future for all."

In the long term, this also includes a legal process within Syria to come to terms with Assad's rule, the foreign minister said. "Without justice, there can be no lasting reconciliation and thus no peaceful coexistence."

Baerbock's ministry issued an eight-point plan this week, which said that the most important goal in the coming weeks was "that there is a peaceful transfer of power."

However, it added that a civilian government accepted by all sides would only be successful "if all minorities and political groups are at the table." Women's rights must also be respected, Baerbock said, before adding that it would be "a rocky road" that would one day hopefully end with free elections.

How moderate is al-Golani?

That didn't sound very confident, despite the euphoria among Syrians and the moderate rhetoric coming from the current leaders in Damascus. The transitional government led by the Islamist militia HTS has promised to guarantee the rights of all religious groups. Syria is home to numerous ethnic and religious minorities, such as Kurds, Alawites, Druze and Christians. "We will judge HTS by its actions," said Baerbock.

Her doubts stem from the fact that HTS emerged from the al-Nusra Front, the Syrian branch of the al-Qaeda terrorist network. However, HTS has said that it has had no links to al-Qaeda since 2016. Its leader, Abu Mohammed al-Golani, presents himself as a moderate. Nevertheless, the United Nations, the EU, the United States and Turkey currently classify the militia as a terrorist organization.

Hans-Jakob Schindler, Middle East expert and director of the international organization Counter Extremism Project, welcomed al-Golani's initial statements but pointed out that the HTS "did not fight and bleed alone [against Assad]," but also alongside hard-line Islamist groups.

"They have a different idea of what the political system in Syria should look like," he told DW. "And these groups have yet to be given power and influence, and may have ideological ideas."

Al-Golani himself is said to have changed, according to Schindler, though he added "you can believe it, but you don't have to." In any case, his alleged political transformation is clever, he said.

"If al-Golani can now establish himself or his prime minister as the go-between to the West and practically as a hinge for all the possible aid money and political contacts that Europe and America and the rest of the world can offer, then, of course, he has secured his central position in the power system … in the long term."

'Israel still doesn't trust the new situation'

Germany wants to offer diplomatic support in Syria's transition and is calling on Israel and Turkey not to question Syria's territorial integrity. The negotiation inside Syria must not be "torpedoed from the outside," said Baerbock.

"Neighbors such as the Turkish and Israeli governments, who are asserting their security interests, must not endanger the process with their actions," she emphasized.

In recent days, Israel has not only attacked military targets in Syria and destroyed military equipment but has also stationed troops in the buffer zone established in 1974 on the Syrian Golan Heights. According to the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, this is only a temporary measure and is intended to prevent "jihadi groups from filling the vacuum" created by the end of Assad's rule. Under international law, the Golan Heights belong to Syria, though in the Six-Day War of 1967, Israel occupied large parts of it and annexed the area in 1981.

"Israel still doesn't trust the new situation," said Schindler. "Because it's a sad truth that, from an Israeli point of view, cooperation with the Assad regime was not a bad thing." Since the 1970s, the Assad regime has kept the Golan Heights quiet and even tolerated Israeli attacks on Hezbollah targets in Syria.

Turkey plays a key role for the West

For its part, Turkey has a great deal of influence in Syria. For years, it supported Assad's opponents, including Islamist militias, while taking action against Kurdish units in the north to prevent the Kurds from gaining strength.

Turkey itself has a large Kurdish minority, and after Assad's fall, Ankara stepped up attacks on Kurdish-controlled areas in northeastern Syria, especially on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) — recognized as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the US and the European Union.

Turkey also plays a key role for the West's chance to influence Syria's future path, said Schindler. He views the German government's eight-point plan positively, but has reservations.

"Unfortunately, we have no influence whatsoever on any groups in Syria. We have more or less kept out of it all, for reasons of self-interest, and the Americans have done the same to a large extent," he said.

If there is any influence at all, he added, it would come through Turkey, hence the visits of both EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Ankara in recent days.

Germany plans to send humanitarian aid

What the German government cannot, and does not, have to wait on is providing humanitarian aid for Syria. Germany has pledged €8 million ($8.4 million) in emergency aid.

According to Development Minister Svenja Schulze, Germany will also spend around €125 million on development projects in Syria this year, including money to support the water supply in Aleppo and the operation of hospitals in Idlib, in Syria's northwest.

This article was originally written in German.

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