Assad's power structure

The presidential palace of Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad overlooks the city of Damascus. Surrounded by barbed wire fences and consisting of grey concrete blocks and steel, the estate resembles a fortress. These days, it presents itself as unassailable as the Syrian regime.

However, there are signs of dissent within Syria's political elite. A growing frustration with Assad and his security forces has reached the highest circles of government, an unnamed US government official told the New York Times.

However it's difficult to tell from the outside exactly how big Assad's power base in the population is. The Syrian government's restrictions on news reporting make it nearly impossible for journalists to gather independent information, because they are not allowed into the country. At the same time, Bassam Abou Abdallah, a professor at Damascus University, and other supporters of the regime, make every effort to play down the current uprising.

"The regime is still very powerful - even after five months. It has withstood the increased pressure from abroad. The Syrian population has rejected chaos and will not follow the example of Libya and Yemen," he says.

However, countless uploaded videos, showing anti-regime demonstrations, paint a different picture. According to members of the opposition, approximately 2,000 people have been killed during the five months of protest. But from where does Assad draw the confidence in his own power?

The crucial role of the Alawis

"Until now, the President can count on the unbroken loyalty of the military and security forces," Rudolph Chimelli, correspondent and Middle East expert for the newspaper Süddeutsche Zeitung, says. Assad's younger brother Maher, who is a prominent hardliner, will defend the regime at all costs. The 43-year old is commander of the so-called Fourth Armored Division that is violently cracking down on protesters in Syria.

"Al-Assad relies on the loyalty of other Alawis when it comes to key positions in his power structure, the military, and security forces. The fall of the regime would pose a great threat to the Syrian Alawi minority," says Chimelli.

Assad is not the first in his family to place fellow sect members in positions of authority. His father Hafez al-Assad pursued the same plan. However, the Shiite minority of the Alawis represents only 12 percent of the overall Syrian population (22 million).

According to opposition reports, an increasing number of soldiers and police officers are refusing to fire on protesters and instead change sides. Chimelli knows from reliable sources in neighboring countries that these reports are exaggerated and that the number of deserters is in fact relatively small.

The silence of the bourgeoisie

But Assad also benefits from the fact that crucial parts of society are staying out of the protests. "The president can count to a certain degree on the Damascus and Aleppo bourgeoisie. They are not exactly great supporters of the president, but they stand for stability and prosperity," Chimelli says.

The economic reforms of recent years have widened the gap between rich and poor in Syria. Urban traders and business men are the ones that have benefited, but not the suburbs and rural provinces. The underdeveloped areas of Syria are now venues of protests says Samir Aita, member of the opposition and chief editor of the Arabic newspaper Le Monde Diplomatique. But even the bourgeoisie will not be silent forever.

"The feeling of social injustice is quite strong. Even the bourgeoisie feels that the Syrian government engages in nepotism. Damascus and Aleppo will join the uprising, as soon as someone from the bourgeoisie gets killed," Aita says. Then, the tide may turn against the Syrian regime and in favor of the opposition.

Christians in Fear

Assad is also benefitting from religious tensions in the country. The majority of the Syrian people are Sunnis, leaving the Alawis, Christians, Druze, and Shiites minority groups. Many priests and bishops publicly support the regime, mentioning Assad in their sermons.

"The Christians in Syria were completely free during the time of the Assad family. There was no religious discrimination. And now, they fear that the situation could become more uncomfortable for them, especially if the Sunni majority would rise to power," Middle East expert Chimelli believes. The regime appears to do everything to stoke fear among Syrian minorities. In public speeches, Assad and his followers compare the protesters to intolerant fundamentalists, who want to establish a theocracy in Syria.

The scare tactics of the regime are successful, because the opposition is still not unified. The Syrian opposition must organize itself better, Samir Aita says. "The regime has its servants. They support al-Assad not because he is a good president, but because they have much to lose. Many people are scared to lose the continuity of the Syrian government. They fear change. It is up to the opposition to clarify this picture," he adds.

For now, the the regime is playing on that fear to consolidate its power. However, as the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt have shown, fear is not a solid foundation for power.

Author: Julia Hahn (ce)
Editor: Rob Mudge