Point of no return

Hans-Ulrich Klose, a Social Democrat, is the deputy head of the German parliament's foreign affairs committee and chairman of the German-American Parliamentary Group. He was vice president of the German parliament from 1994-1998.

DW: Has the West overestimated Iran's willingness to negotiate?

Hans-Ulrich Klose: That depends what you mean by the West. If one talks about the so-called EU-3 [Britain, France, Germany] they have tried for years to achieve results with Iran through negotiations. The EU-3 have always been realistic. They knew that negotiations with Iran could only be successful if on a certain point - namely security - the US would participate in the negotiations. This wasn't the case before Obama.

But it is noteworthy, that President Obama really was serious when he said during the election campaign that he would also talk to America's adversaries. He made an offer to talk that Tehran so far hasn't shown much appreciation for. Quite to the contrary: after the most recent revelations one has to assume that Tehran continues to obfuscate.

Iran is sending very mixed messages. On the one hand the government says it's ready to cooperate, but on the other hand there are the new revelations about another previously undeclared Iranian enrichment site and missile tests. How should the permanent members of the Security Council and Germany react to this at the talks with Iran in Geneva on Thursday?

To be honest, I don't really know myself. One has to consider the possibility that Iran continues to play for time until we simply get to a point of no return. So far it seems like that Iran is always playing for time, and I think this is continuing. That's why we are getting close to the point where either new and effective sanctions have to be enacted, or other measures have to be put on the table.

Obama has already threatened tougher sanctions. But do sanctions make sense? Some sanctions are already in place.

That really is an open question. There are in modern history only a few examples in which sanctions were effective. The only example I can think of is South Africa during the apartheid regime. But that case isn't comparable, because in the South African case the majority of South Africans and people around the world supported sanctions. That isn't the case with Iran. Still, sanctions that would isolate Iran are thinkable, but only if China and Russia take part.

Isn't there a danger that other allies might not enforce the sanctions?

No, I think at this juncture the West is pretty much united. But the West isn't yet united on the question of what the next measures should be.

The US doesn't rule out a military strike against the nuclear sites anymore. Is that the right strategy?

Firstly, it is probably the right that the Americans keep all options on the table. Secondly, I don't think we can solve the problem militarily. A military conflict with Iran could easily get out of control and engulf the entire Middle East in flames.

What other options are there then, besides the military one?

There is an option that is being considered in Germany, at least in the think tanks. That is that one considers the possibility of Iran becoming a nuclear power, a military nuclear power. In that case, we would have to consider a number of implications and it would be better to think about them now instead of waiting until this possibility becomes reality.

What kind of implications would have to be drawn in that case?

Let's start with Iran. If Iran becomes a nuclear power, the West, possibly together with Russia, will have to develop a new security policy, a new deterrence policy, to be precise, that clearly says to the leaders in Tehran: "Now that you are a nuclear power, if you threaten world peace, the world's reaction will be nuclear as well.

Secondly, a new containment regime has to be established. Thirdly, one has to try to install a new security framework in the Gulf region. For the Arab countries that feel threatened by Iran, one would need to develop a new nuclear shield - which only the Americans could do, possibly including Russia. And one would have to reconsider Israel's security, which would be dramatically altered if Iran became a nuclear power.

Author: Stephanie Gebert (mik)
Editor: Nancy Isenson