Thailand: Russia-Ukraine tensions spill over to APEC

"We go to Phuket every year or two, so why should it be different this year?" asked Yulia, a Russian national arriving in Bangkok. The Thai government reckons that 1 million Russian tourists will have visited the country by the end of the year, but Vladimir Putin, the Russian president, will not be one of them.

He had been expected to arrive in Bangkok yesterday to attend a regional summit but he pulled out last week, citing a busy work schedule. Russia's First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in Bangkok on Thursday in his place for this year's Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, which starts today. 

Thai 'appeasement' fails to bring Putin to Bangkok

Putin also declined to visit Indonesia earlier this week for the annual G20 summit, missing a chance to meet face to face with his American and Chinese counterparts, among other world leaders. But his absence hasn't soothed Southeast Asian divisions over Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine that was launched in February this year.

Singapore imposed its own sanctions on Russia, while Vietnam and Laos have consistently abstained on UN votes. Thailand, which prefers to hedge on all important international issues, has been hard to press down. It has voted against Russia on some UN General Assembly resolutionsbut abstained on more recent motions; it has condemned Russia's invasion but appealed to Moscow to boost trade. 

"Some have suggested that, as host of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation, the Thai appeasement was designed to entice President Putin to show up for the leaders' meeting [this week]," Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor at Thailand's Chulalongkorn University, pointed out.

"But Mr Putin's attendance would be problematic for the host as other leaders may boycott due to sanctions against Russia's invasion," he wrote.

Russia's invasion fuels communal tensions 

Indeed, Russia's low-level participation in the Bangkok-hosted event has somewhat defused tensions within Thailand over the country's response to the war.

An active member of the Ukrainian community, who asked not to be named, said discussions were held over whether to protest if Putin had arrived in Bangkok.

"We understand that we are guests in Thailand and we want to respect local laws, however we felt that our voice should be heard," he said. There was no protest as Belousov, a low-key figure, arrived in the capital.

Tensions have run high between members of the Russian and Ukrainian communities who call Thailand home.

"The Ukrainian people whom I know stopped our relationship after the war began," said Michael, a Russian national who has lived in Thailand for seven years. Even though he opposes Putin's invasion, and even though Ukrainians "understand this is not my war, they can't feel comfortable communicating with someone from Russia."

"On Facebook, some of them even urge [people] to quietly kill Russians here," he added.

A prominent member of the Ukrainian community in Thailand understands the desire to avoid Russians. "We just don't want to have anything in common with them. We don't want to see them; we don't want to hear them; we don't want to deal with them in any way," he told DW. 

Rufusing to fight, but supporting the invasion

"What makes us mad is that there are Russians who run away from mobilization but still support aggressive war," said a Ukrainian expatriate.

Alexei, a young tech worker who arrived in Bangkok in September to avoid being called up when Putin announced a partial mobilization of reservists, says he expects more defectors to arrive in the Southeast Asian country. He reckons that "hundreds" of Russians have already "escaped" to Thailand, although DW cannot confirm any reliable estimate, which varies from the hundreds to thousands.

"But it's difficult to stay for too long, because of visas, so maybe they prefer to go elsewhere," Alexei added. 

Many Thais are also uneasy about Russian tourists, as well as their government's recent abstention at a UN vote that condemned Russia.

The Thai government has attempted to muddle through the international crisis. This year marks the 125th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic relations between Russia and Thailand.

Boosting business abroad

Earlier in the year, Thailand voted in favor of several UN General Assembly resolutions that condemned Russia's invasion of its neighbor. But last month it abstained on a UN resolution condemning Russia for its illegal "annexation" of eastern regions of Ukraine, and it again abstained on last Monday's General Assembly motion regarding Russian war reparations to Ukraine.

Thailand's foreign minister, Don Pramudwinai, made a quick visit to Moscow in September. Although its trade links with Russia are far smaller than those of other Southeast Asian states, like Vietnam, Thailand has been keen to boost trade. On the sidelines of a preliminary APEC meeting in May, Thailand and Russia agreed to expand bilateral trade to $10 billion (€9.65 billion) within a few years, up from around $2.7 billion in 2021.

Thailand's tourism sector — which was decimated by the COVID-19 pandemic and which accounted for around between 10%-20% of GDP in 2019 — has also been keen to increase arrival numbers from Russia, a major source of visitors before the pandemic.

Direct flights from Russia to Phuket, a resort island, resumed at the end of October after having been suspended due to the Ukraine war, and the Thai government reckons tourism numbers will peak over the winter. It aims to have attracted around 1 million Russian tourists this year.

Disputes over the Ukraine war are expected to hamper the APEC summit. Thailand says that it will present a plan for a grand regional free trade agreement, the Free Trade Area of the Asia-Pacific (FTAAP), for leaders' approval today, although much of the summit's timetable will be taken up talking about global issues.

Joe Biden, the US president, visited Cambodia and Indonesia last week for the annual ASEAN and G20 summits, respectively, but he has left Kamala Harris, the vice president, to attend the APEC summit. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, will cap off a week of three summits in three Southeast Asian countries with a final visit to Bangkok.

However, even without Putin's presence, Moscow has attempted to divide Southeast Asian nations. Speaking while in Cambodia last weekend, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov accused Western leaders of looking to militarize Southeast Asia to contain Moscow's and Beijing's interests in the region.

Edited by: Keith Walker