Zambia decides Sata's successor

Zambia's ruling Patriotic Front (PF) had been embroiled in infighting even before the death of President Michael Sata in October last year. The simmering split deepened after Sata's death, when Vice President Guy Scott took over as interim president. He fired Defense Minister Edgar Lungu as secretary general of the party, without explaining why, before reversing the decision a day later after riots broke out.

Scott is leading the country until the election is held and a new leader is sworn in. Due to his Scottish parentage, he is not constitutionally eligible to run for Zambia's presidency.

Two differing camps emerged within the party, with each group nominating rival candidates for the presidential by-election. The faction loyal to acting president Guy Scott chose late president Michael Sata's nephew, Miles Sampa, as its candidate, while Defense Minister Edgar Lungu was named by a breakaway group.

Early last month, Zambia's Supreme Court declared Lungu to be the duly elected presidential candidate of the Patriotic Front. On 20 December, 2014 Lungu's faction and his rivals led by Scott agreed to field a joint candidate. Scott has now vowed to fully support Lungu to ensure that the party retains the presidency.

PF candidate 'favorite'

Helmut Elischer, Director of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Lusaka, says that although there are problems with the PF, " the chances they will win the elections again are there." He says the PF appears to be united on the campaign trail and is keen "to make the best out of the situation."

The PF is not the only party dealing with divisions, the opposition Movement for Multiparty Democracy (MMD) has also had its share of problems. When former president Rupiah Banda announced that a committee of the opposition MMD had elected him as its candidate for the election, Nevers Mumba, the party's president, turned to the court to challenge that decision.

Zambia's Supreme Court ruled that the procedure to nominate Banda was unlawful. Banda then dropped out of the campaign, leaving Nevers Mumba as the official candidate for the MMD party. However, Banda is now "endorsing and supporting Edgar Lungu," a development which has puzzled the public, Elischer told DW.

PF's loss, UPND's gain

Zambian analyst Boniface Cheembe believes that the split experienced within the ruling party gave the opposition parties a head start for their campaigns. "The disunity within the ruling PF did contribute to the huge momentum that the opposition United Party for National Development (UPND) is currently experiencing," he said. It is because of this (PF) split that the UPND have been able to get a number of endorsements that have put them in a core position to compete favorably and at least be in a position to even form the next government, Cheembe told DW.

Although there are eleven candidates nominated for the presidential by-election, the main battle is between Lungu of the ruling PF, Hakainde Hichilema of the UPND and Nevers Mumba of the former governing MMD. Elischer thinks Hichilema is the second strongest contender after Lungu.

Lungu told French news agency AFP that, if elected, he would like to bring all sides into government. "I want to form a government which will be very inclusive including former PF members, opposition politicians, and even those within the PF who viciously opposed my candidacy." He said he now wants the party and the country to move beyond the politics of ethnicity to a national identity.

DW correspondent Kathy Sikombe said most Zambians are hoping for a better economy with good standards of living and more job opportunities for the youth. She adds that the people are looking forward to a review of the constitution which is going to be "people driven."

Kingmaker Hichilema?

Hakainde Hichilema, who is contesting the presidential elections for the fourth time, has drawn huge crowds at his rallies. He has received support from diverse groups of politicians from MMD and UPND. The UPND is campaigning on a platform of transforming the country's economy as well as enacting a new constitution.

Cheembe said the race is very tight and that the electorate cannot tell who might win. "When [candidates] are asked what they will do when they lose, none of them seems to want to conceive that there is a possibility of losing." According to Cheembe, the two front runners, that is PF and UPND, believe they will win the first round of voting.

Zambians have shown a high level of interest during the campaigns. Huge numbers turned up for the political rallies held by the different political parties. "I think from those numbers, Zambians appear to be very engaged and wanting to listen to the messages and ideas from their candidates and they have been participating", Cheembe said, adding that in the rural areas there was less interest in the elections as it is the planting season.

However Elischer disagrees. "There is a big question mark on voter turnout because the electoral commission announced that they would use the voter register from the 2011 elections," Elischer said. This means that young Zambians who have become eligible to vote since then will not be able to take part. "Due to the fact that this is a snap election, the enthusiasm of the people is not so visible to head towards this election," Elischer feels.

Whoever wins will be in office for less than two years as the country is due to hold a general election in 2016.