Olaf Scholz on a delicate mission

A day in Kyiv with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and a day in Moscow with Russian President Vladimir Putin. The plan is to arrive early in the morning and leave late at night. If the geopolitical situation were not so tense, and relations between Ukraine and Russia not so toxic, then these trips would be standard first official visits by Germany's new chancellor, Olaf Scholz.

The visits would be an attempt by the heads of state to assess each other, to see whether there is chemistry between them and if political harmony is possible. A lot depends on these factors in bilateral and geopolitical relations. However, amid the current political tensions between Russia and Ukraine, the new chancellor has no time for such a gentle and organized start.

'A very, very serious threat to peace'

US intelligence agencies have warned that Russia may invade Ukraine before the coming weekend. In line with the US and other Western states, the foreign office in Berlin has urged German citizens to leave Ukraine. The government has assessed the situation as extremely dangerous. On the sidelines of the German presidential election in Berlin on Sunday, Scholz spoke of "a very, very serious threat to peace."

Amid the tensions, Scholz has launched a diplomatic offensive. A week ago, he was in Washington meeting with US President Joe Biden. Scholz then held talks with European heads of state and governments at the chancellery in Berlin. He hosted the French president and Poland's head of state, as well as the heads of government from Denmark and three Baltic states.

EU Council President Charles Michel was also in Berlin, and on Thursday, 10-hour long talks were held in the so-called Normandy format between Russia and Ukraine, moderated by Germany and France.

Scholz aims to negotiate and deter

Now, on to Kyiv and Moscow. Scholz has high expectations, even though the German government is trying to keep the bar low ahead of the talks. According to government sources, Scholz's team does not expect to fly back to Berlin from Moscow on Tuesday evening with a concrete result. The talks are part of intensive diplomatic efforts by all allies, with the aim being to keep the channels of dialogue open with Russia about concrete steps toward de-escalation.

Ahead of the talks, Scholz spoke of a "double strategy." On the one hand, there are the negotiations; on the other hand, there is the threat.

"In the event of military aggression against Ukraine that threatens its territorial integrity and sovereignty, that will lead to tough sanctions that we have carefully prepared and which we can immediately put into force together with our allies in Europe and in NATO," he said on Sunday.

The alliance is united and determined, Scholz said last week. "The point is to act quickly, swiftly and decisively, and above all, in a unified manner."

The chancellor's visit to Kyiv and Moscow differs, for example, from last week's trip made by French President Emmanuel Macron. German bilateral relations could never be seen without taking historical context into account, said a government source in Berlin.

Endless suffering has been inflicted on the region in Germany's name, and the government is grateful that it has been possible to restore relations in recent decades. However, this did not mean Germany has a special role. "This is our involvement, embedded in what everyone is trying to do," said the source.

No arms deliveries, but other equipment possible

However, Germany continues to refuse to supply weapons to Ukraine, making reference to its history. Even a request from Estonia, that old howitzers from the inventory of the former East German army be sent to Ukraine, has not been given clearance.

Scholz is not expected to make any promises on arms deliveries to Kyiv either, according to government circles. On the other hand, Germany does expect to approve a wish list for military equipment, including electronic tracking systems, mine-clearing equipment, protective suits, digital radios and night-vision equipment.

"One or the other" of these requests could be "looked at more closely," according to a statement from Berlin. In addition to a political decision, it's also a matter of availability. "We don't have anything left at the Bundeswehr; there aren't 1,000 night-vision devices lying around," said the source.

Economic aid also likely

Scholz is also expected to offer further financial assistance to Ukraine, following a demand by Kyiv. Germany has been its largest donor in recent years, giving around €2 billion ($2.3 billion) in aid to stabilize the economy. The Ukrainian currency is under pressure at the moment, which is likely to further complicate the situation.

"Ukraine can be sure that we will show the necessary solidarity, as we have in the past," said the chancellor.

Another talking point in Kyiv and Moscow is likely to be the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline linking Germany and Russia. European allies and the US have noted with surprise how the German government has persisted in trying to keep the pipeline, which is not yet in operation, off the list of possible sanctions.

The pipeline, which runs through the Baltic Sea from Russia to Germany, is a "private sector project" and the approval process is "completely apolitical," Scholz said as recently as December.

Not all sanctions on the table

Standing alongside Scholz in Washington last week, President Biden clearly said Nord Stream 2 will be blocked "if Russia invades, that means tanks and troops crossing the border of Ukraine again." 

Scholz, for his part, seemed uncomfortablewith Biden's pledge. For weeks, he has steadfastly refused to even say the name "Nord Stream 2."

There are many reasons for this reluctance. The official version is that the German government does not want to talk about concrete sanctions and "put everything on the table," as Scholz said. The Russian president, he added, must be left in uncertainty so as not to be able to calculate concretely how much sanctions would cost.

However, Scholz has other motives. For one, he does not want Germany alone to bear the brunt of any sanctions that might be imposed. What about US oil purchases in Russia, for example? Wouldn't those also have to be suspended?

In addition, Scholz, a Social Democrat, also has to consider the mood inside his own party. Nord Stream 2 has left its impression on the German state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, where Social Democrat politician Manuela Schwesig, as the state governor, has been doing everything she can for years to ensure that the pipeline is built.

Industry hopes

German industry also has a vested interest in ensuring relations between Germany and Russia don't become too strained. Despite the worsening Ukraine crisis, the German Committee on Eastern European Economic Relations still plans to hold its annual business talks with Putin.

Due to COVID, 20 of Germany's top business leaders want to hold a virtual meeting with the Russian president rather than go in person to Moscow or Sochi. A date has been planned for the beginning of March in consultation with the German government, according to reports.

This article has been translated from German