Ukraine Sends Mixed Signals on New Defense Doctrine

Confusion surrounds Ukraine's apparent decision to remove EU and NATO membership as strategic aims in the country's defense doctrine.

A posting on the Ukrainian government's website on July 26 quoted a decree by Ukrainian President Leonid Kutschma which replaced EU and NATO membership in Ukraine's defense doctrine with the more vague aim of "Euro-Atlantic integration." The decree substituted a new goal of "deepening" Kiev's relations with the blocs for its earlier goal of "joining" them.

However, Ukraine's Deputy Foreign Minister Oleh Shamshur told a press conference in Kiev the following day that Ukraine had not changed its policy toward NATO and the EU despite the rewording carried in the President's latest decree and that Kiev was still pursuing what he called "euro integration."

Integration still a goal?

"We do not see any reasons for claims that Ukraine has changed its European and Euro-Atlantic course, since the ultimate goal of European integration has not changed, is not changing, and I don't think it will change. The key word about European integration is still there," Shamshur told reporters.

In June, Kutschma signed a defense doctrine that stated Kiev was "pursuing a policy of Euro-Atlantic integration with a final goal of joining NATO as the basis of the European security system." The new decree which appeared on the government website, signed and dated July 15, read: "Ukraine's national security interests require the deepening of relations with NATO and the EU as guarantors of security and stability in Europe."

It remains unclear whether Kiev will now seek a formal change of wording to its June defense doctrine. The English-language daily The Moscow Times reported on Tuesday that changing the doctrine would require parliamentary approval.

EU chooses measured response

Regardless of whether the doctrine has or has not changed, the European Union had a reserved reaction to the reports. Some observers see Kutschma's apparent decision to give up EU and NATO membership as strategic objectives as a result of getting the cold-shoulder by Brussels.

Commenting on relations with both Ukraine and Russia, Chief European Commission spokesman Reijo Kemppinen told a press conference on Tuesday that the EU seeks closer ties with Ukraine, but is not offering membership.

"Insofar as our relationship with Ukraine and Russia is concerned, we have good and close relations with both countries, and we hope they will be even closer in the future. Membership of the European Union has never been in the offing for either of those countries, nor has it formally been discussed as a prospect," Kemppinen said.

Kutschma bluffing?

Ukraine has been pursuing EU membership for some time but as yet to receive any positive response on the matter from Brussels. Kutschma feels he has also been shunned by NATO despite pledging his support to the war in Iraq, something a number of European Union countries refused to do.

With presidential elections approaching in Ukraine, a change in doctrine which moves away from the pursuit of western recognition may help Kutschma attract support from Russia, an important factor in winning pro-Moscow votes in the former Soviet country.

It appears that the Ukrainian president is hedging his bets; not fully departing from the target of EU and NATO membership in case of a change of heart in Brussels, while distancing himself enough to attract pro-Russian voters. He also chose to release his ambiguous decree during the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Reiner Lindner, an expert on Eastern Europe from the University of Konstanz, explained to DW-RADIO that votes from the pro-Russian east will be very important for Kutschma as he looks to install a successor who can protect his interests.

"At the moment, it is a matter of finding a successor who can take over (Kutschma's) position and represent his interests. And this must be a nominee who is chosen, above all, by the people of East Ukraine. That man is Viktor Juschtschenko, the head of the government. Opposition nominees will mobilize strong votes in Western or central Ukraine. So the possible change in military doctrine could be based in electoral tactics."