Open to negotiation?

As the 10th anniversary of the start of military operations against the Taliban in Afghanistan nears, the United States and its allies appear to be no closer to bringing widespread peace to the embattled country.

It will come as little surprise then that with no end in sight for the conflict, an alternative solution to the fighting has become a priority for the US, its partners and the government of Afghanistan. However unpalatable in may seem to some, that solution looks increasingly likely to come with talking directly to the Taliban to negotiate an end to the war.

In the latest attempt to open the channels of communication, the United Nations is to debate whether the Taliban should be separated from al Qaeda on its terrorism blacklist, a move which would symbolically sever the Taliban from al Qaeda and recognize their different agendas.

"When UN resolution 1267 was created in 1999, al Qaeda was based in Afghanistan and protected by the Taliban," Xenia Dormandy, a US foreign policy and AfPak expert at Chatham House, told Deutsche Welle.

"It was therefore very dependent on the Taliban and perceived as being interlinked. Thus 1267 was created as a single resolution, but with four categories, one each for the Taliban and al Qaeda and for groups associated with each of these organizations."

Separation scenario

Since then, while al Qaeda has remained focused on its worldwide jihad against the West and establishment of a religious state in the Muslim world, the Afghan Taliban has shown little interest in attacking targets outside of Afghanistan and has concentrated on fighting occupying forces within its own country.

It is hoped that the separation of the two entities will act as an incentive for the Taliban to agree to peace talks, effectively granting them their long-held wish to be considered a separate group.

"Splitting the Taliban and al Qaeda recognizes that these are very independent entities today which need to be dealt with individually," Dormandy said. "Al Qaeda is still a terrorist organization but, with the loss of Afghanistan, its franchises are now based in multiple locations in the Middle East and Asia."

Separating the Taliban will allow the Afghan government, and the Americans, to more safely negotiate with them, and allow them to travel without risk for these negotiations, she said. "It is both a logistical benefit but also an act of good faith."

Reconciliation - with conditions

The Taliban has maintained that its removal from the list would help promote reconciliation; an outcome promoted by the US and Afghan governments on the condition that the Taliban renounces violence, embraces the Afghan constitution and severs its links with al Qaeda.

"Elements of the Taliban have shown a willingness to negotiate, and some have already crossed over to the Afghan Government," said Dormandy. "It is unclear today, however, whether those willing to negotiate have sufficient leverage and power to bring the majority of the organization over with them."

Peter Wittig, Germany's Ambassador to the UN, who chairs the Security Council committee that currently monitors sanctions against the two groups, told reporters in Kabul earlier this month that separating the Taliban from al Qaeda would further highlight "the significance of the political efforts that are ongoing in Afghanistan."

Afghan President Hamid Karzai has actively sought talks with the Taliban for years as part of his reconciliation and reintegration plan which aims to reintroduce reformed insurgents back into Afghan society.

"I would assume the thinking behind such a move is twofold," Dr. Orit Gal, an expert on conflict management, told Deutsche Welle. "Firstly, enabling negotiation and integrating of Taliban forces into the Afghan government would help in part to prepare for the withdrawal of Western forces. Secondly, as a local political movement, I would assume the Taliban would always be interested in a formal part of the political pie."

Total delisting?

While the separation would not completely wipe the Taliban from the UN terror list, which subjects them to sanctions such as an asset freeze and travel bans, it is expected to lead to around 50 Taliban figures being removed. Together, around 450 figures from both groups make up the Taliban/al Qaeda list, with 140 of them Taliban-related.

"If negotiations go well, and the Taliban were to revoke its support of violent jihad to achieve its goals, it is possible that the entity itself as a whole could be taken off the lists at a later date," Dormandy said. "This is likely to be used as a point of leverage in negotiations."

However, despite efforts by Afghan representatives at the UN to convince the Security Council to agree to the separation, the proposal may face opposition from Russia, China and non-permanent member India which have opposed previous effort to delist Taliban members and which believe the links between the Taliban and al Qaeda remain strong. The proposal can only be approved by a unanimous vote in favor.

Russia especially opposes the delisting of a number of Taliban commanders who fought as mujahedeen against the Soviet Union during its occupation of Afghanistan during the 1980s. Moscow is also concerned about Taliban links to Islamist insurgents in Chechnya.

Fighting - and peace talks

If the proposal is agreed and the Taliban figures are removed from the blacklist, it may not necessarily mean that the military operation will end. While the US is eager to end its involvement in Afghanistan, the continued deployment of its forces is seen as integral to any peace process.

"The more success that the Afghan government, the International Security and Assistance Force (ISAF) and US forces have, the weaker the Taliban position becomes and the more likely they are to negotiate," Dormandy concluded.

"At the same time, the Taliban does represent the views of a minority in Afghanistan and so they will have to have a part in any political solution. The negotiations will be about how much of a part they will play."

Author: Nick Amies
Editor: Rob Mudge